We have been working as the Elk Grove Village Township Democracy Club in Cook County Illinois for the past several years to form a group that has some real impact in our area. This has been very difficult with little to no support from the local powers. If you are in our area/township and interested, please come Thursday night, April 16. Christine Cegelis will be one of our speakers.

The elections are 11 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.

Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Vulnerable are
  IL-06 (R) possibly
  IL-10 (R) which is now open
  IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district
  IN-02 (D)
  IN-09 (D) (probably safe)

Filing deadlines:
 IL - 11/2
 IN -  2/16

If you're like me, then these last few weeks have not been easy.
From where I sit, it looked to me like our President got knocked on his ass and might not get up.
I was afraid that he had lost his mojo and might not get it back.
Clearly, I was wrong.

After what I saw from our President today, I felt encouraged to put on the gloves and get back into it.
So, having received yet another e mail from my GOP/wingnut Congresscritter, Peter Roskam, I decided that I wasn't going to just delete this one.
Not this time.
Today I felt like fighting back...

Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.

How many?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  Vulnerable are
  IL-06 (R) esp. if Roskam runs for senate.
  IL-10 (R) which is now open
  IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district
Primary is done

Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  
Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans.

Vulnerable are
  IL-06 (R)
  IL-10 (R)
  IL-11 (D)
  IL-14 (D)
  IN-02 (D)
  IN-08 (D)
  IN-09 (D)
  IA-03 (D)
  KS-04 now open but was (R)

They prowl the halls of Congress, moaning for caaasshh.

Their stupid has gone viral.

And if they win, humanity loses.

I'm tracking Climate Zombies: every Republican candidate for House, Senate, and Governor who doubts, denies, or derides the science of climate change. Today, I finish all states (except California, which I'm saving for last) wholly west of the Mississippi River by visiting Arkansas, Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska, and North Dakota.

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• OR-01: Republican Rob Cornilles, who doesn't really have much of a primary to worry about, is out with an ad (his first) that seems clearly aimed toward January's general election. It's about as anodyne as possible, with Cornilles jogging down streets and over bridges, saying he'll "grow jobs, reduce the debt, protect Social Security and Medicare." See for yourself:

Senate:

• MA-Sen: Dayumn! The League of Conservation Voters just went up with a $1.8 million ad buy, hammering Scott Brown for siding with "Big Oil." You can watch the spot below, but also check out the link for the Brown campaign's ultra-feeble response. Note that they call Elizabeth Warren "Professor" twice—is that really how they plan to try to win this thing?

• WI-Sen: Public Policy Polling is out with the first independent survey of the GOP primary and the numbers are both interesting and almost exactly what you'd expect:

[Tommy] Thompson's at 35% to 29% for Mark Neumann, 21% for Jeff Fitzgerald, and 4% for Frank Lasee. That's not a particularly impressive lead given that Thompson's name recognition is 86% compared to 61% for Neumann, 50% for Fitzgerald, and 24% for Lasee. Dig deeper and you see just how risky Thompson's position is—with voters that aren't familiar with either Neumann or Fitzgerald, Thompson leads with 50% to 19% for Neumann and 9% for Fitzgerald. But with voters who do know even just one out of Thompson's primary rivals Neumann leads with 33% to 29% for Thompson and 27% for Fitzgerald. […]

What's causing Thompson's trouble? It's doubts about him from the right. 51% of primary voters would prefer someone "more conservative" to only 35% who are committed to Thompson. Those numbers are particularly bad for him with Tea Party voters—only 29% of them are committed to him compared to 63% who would prefer someone further to the right. Among voters describing themselves as "very conservative" Thompson already finds himself in third place at 26% behind Neumann's 33% and Fitzgerald's 27%.

• WV-Sen, WV-Gov: Mike Stuart, chair of the West Virginia GOP, says he won't run for office of any kind in 2012. This leaves Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Sen. Joe Manchin, both Democrats, with no declared opponents so far.

Gubernatorial:

• NH-Gov: As expected, former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan officially launched her campaign for New Hampshire's open gubernatorial seat on Tuesday morning, making her the first Democrat to do so, though other entrants are likely. (Incidentally, her last name is pronounced with the accent on the first syllable.)

• MO-Gov (PDF): I have it on good authority that this is the home of Alpha Packaging CEO Dave Spence, the would-be GOP gubernatorial replacement candidate for Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder. It recently sold for $8.95 million:

• CA-24: EMILY's List endorses a lot of incumbents, and it's often not especially newsy. This one stands out, though, since they just announced their backing of Dem Rep. Lois Capps, who was drawn into what is generally considered to be a tougher district for re-election, so this ought to help.

• CA-44: According to Politico, the House Ethics Committee is about to upgrade its months-long "preliminary inquiry" into Dem Rep. Laura Richardson to a "full-scale investigation." Richardson has allegedly used government staff to engage in political activities, and earlier this year, an aide's letter of resignation, replete with accusations of improprieties and abusive behavior, became public. Richardson is facing off against two other Democrats in the redrawn 44th CD: Rep. Janice Hahn and Assemblyman Isadore Hall. Hall actually outraised both incumbents in the last quarter.

• CT-05: Yet another union endorsement for State House Speaker Chris Donovan, this time from the Connecticut Education Association, which represents over 40,000 teachers in the state. Donovan has long been known as a good friend of labor, and it's shown, as he's been completely cleaning up with unions. He also led the Democratic field in third-quarter fundraising with $261K raised. Dan Roberti had $210K, Elizabeth Esty had $200K, and Michael Williams trailed with just $31K.

• FL-11: Do Republicans in Tampa not understand the concept of vote sinks? Simply put, the Democratic voters of that city have to go somewhere when the maps are drawn, and given the Republicans hold all the seats surrounding the current 11th, I don't think they're going to want to try to crack the district. That's all the more true given that once Bill Young retires, their hold on the adjacent 10th CD will be quite tenuous. So I'm baffled that yet another GOPer has entered the race here, because this is a safe blue seat that is only likely to get bluer. But so it goes: Retired Air Force Col. Evelio Otero is joining Hillsborough County Commissioner Mark Sharpe and teabagger Josh Kiernan in a contest for the privilege of losing to Dem Rep. Kathy Castor.

• IA-01: Businessman Rod Blum, a former chair of the Dubuque County Republican Party, officially announced he would challenge Dem Rep. Bruce Braley on Monday. He joins another businessman, Steve Rathje, in the GOP field, and 2010 candidate Ben Lange is also reportedly considering a rematch. Lange came within just two points of beating Braley last year, a much tighter result than most observers expected.

• IA-03: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS is hitting Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell with an ad that tries to link President Obama's new jobs bill to his 2009 stimulus plan—the former generally polls well, but the latter (which is often wrongly lumped with the 2008 bank bailout in many voters' minds) does not, so this line of attack makes sense. The question, of course, is whether it will work. On that score, Crossroads is betting $160K that it will.

• IL-06: Non-profit director Geoffrey Petzel says he'll challenge GOP Rep. Peter Roskam next year. Petzel is 28 years old and is described as a "political newcomer."

• IL-12: This sounds like good news: Madison County Chief Judge Ann Callis will reportedly enter the open-seat race for Democrats, who had seen a number of high-profile names quickly decline after Rep. Jerry Costello announced his retirement. I'm also hopeful that maybe this means ex-state Rep. Jay Hoffman will not switch over from the 13th CD (as he'd been contemplating), since we need him to take on GOP Rep. Tim Johnson in that seat.

On a related note, check out this amazing video of Republican Jason Plummer absolutely blanking in a television interview last year. Plummer announced his campaign for this seat over the weekend and is probably the GOP frontrunner… but if stumbles like these are his stock-in-trade, then maybe not for long.

• IN-09: Robert Winningham, a former aide to ex-Rep. Lee Hamilton, became the second Democrat to announce his candidacy for the right to take on GOP freshman Todd Young. He joins Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jonathan George in the race. Hamilton, by the way, represented the 9th CD for over thirty years, from 1965 to 1999, and also served as vice-chair on the 9/11 Commission. Winningham moved to Texas after Hamilton's retirement (to care for his parents, who have since passed away), and only recently moved back into the district.

• MA-01: Andrea Nuciforo, the Register of Deeds in Pittsfield and also a former state senator (and a dude, btw), says he plans to run for Congress next year, presumably against Rep. John Olver in the Democratic primary. It's sort of an odd move, since many rumors have suggested that Olver's seat will be targeted for demolition. (The latest is that it will be combined with Jim McGovern's Worcester-based 3rd CD.) If Olver does run for re-election (something he says he'll do, despite his age and his wife's poor health), that would leave Nuciforo sandwiched between two incumbents—not usually a comfortable place to be.

• MD-04: Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit, whom we first mentioned just a day ago as interested in primary challenge to Dem Rep. Donna Edwards, has gone ahead and formed an exploratory committee.

• MO-02, MO-Sen: Whoa. I'd been wondering about Ann Wagner's eye-popping third quarter haul of $532K, the largest take of any non-incumbent House candidate in the nation. According to a Politico analysis, it turns out that over a fifth of her money came from employees of Enterprise, the car-rental company—where her husband just happens to be a vice president. No way all those people received any pressure whatsoever, right?

On a related note, Wagner rather definitively insists that she won't switch back over to the GOP Senate primary and will stick with the open-seat House race.

• PA-08: Roll Call's Jason Dick discusses a couple of potential Democratic challengers to red-shirt GOP freshman Mike Fitzpatrick. Doylestown Township Supervisor Cynthia Philo says she is "considering" the race, though first she has to deal with re-election to her current job next month. Philo got thumped in a state Senate race last year, but she's also a former director of a neighborhood economic development organization, so that suggests helpful connections. The piece also mentions Bucks County Commissioner Diane Marseglia as a possible name.

Other Races:

• Maine Question 1: The group Protect Maine Votes is going up with a new TV ad in support of Question 1, a ballot measure that would veto the GOP's attempt to repeal the states's same-day voter registration law. (Republicans hate anything that makes registering to vote easier.) Along with Ohio's Issue 2, this is one of the most important initiatives on the ballot in the entire nation this November. Unlike in Ohio, where a "no" vote is a vote for the good guys, in Maine, a "yes" vote is a vote for the side of justice. Anyhow, you can watch the ad (which I think is pretty good) below:

• OH SB5: More good news on the SB5/Issue 2 front. Quinnipiac, like PPP, saw support for the repeal drop over the summer, from 56-32 in July to 51-38 at the end of September. But, also like PPP, they now show opposition firming up once again, back out to 57-32. It's always tricky to poll ballot measures, so I wouldn't grow too comfortable just yet, especially since anti-union forces have been spending heavily in favor of Issue 2. But the numbers have moved in the right direction.

Grab Bag:

• Voter Suppression: Oh man. Artur Davis can seriously get f*cked. You'll recall that last week, the former Democratic congressman wrote a turd of an op-edin which he came out favor of voter ID legislation and claimed—with zero evidence—that voter "fraud" was rampant in his home state of Alabama. Now, asked to provide such evidence, this is how he dodges:

“I know that those are the talking points that some groups opposed to my article have disseminated and I choose not to play that game with you or them,” Davis told TPM in an email. “It strikes me as the ‘shoot the messenger’ politics both the left and the right deploy and I hope you will do me the courtesy of printing my reply.”

Redistricting Roundup:

• NV Redistricting: Trust me, when you're in court, this is always the position you want to find yourself in—if, in these circumstances, you're Team Blue. Democrats told the judge hearing Nevada's main redistricting litigation that they are content with the maps drafted by the three special masters, while Republicans filed objections and have essentially asked the judge to adopt the map that they proposed. Convincing a judge to alter or drop a special masters' report is a tough row to hoe, especially when the chief grounds for your opposition have already been largely dismissed by that same report. (The GOP is just re-hashing its self-serving claims that Hispanic voters need to be packed into fewer districts so that they can elect candidates of their choice—something the special masters specifically said wasn't necessary.) The judge will hold a hearing on Thursday and has previously said he hopes to issue a final ruling by Nov. 15.

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• IL-06, 08, 10, 14: That ridiculous string of district numbers is no accident. Tom Hobbs of the Journal & Topics Newspapers files a report filled with all manner of juicy details about GOP freshman Joe Walsh's new attempts at district-shopping. Some great tidbits:

Republican insiders told the Journal & Topics Newspapers this week that Walsh recently met with 8th Dist. Republican candidate Darlene Ruscitti in an attempt to "intimidate her" into dropping out so Walsh could run in the 8th rather than face a potentially difficult primary in the 14th against U.S. Rep. Randy Hultgren.

Ruscitti was having none of it and told Walsh she was staying in the race, Republican sources said. […]

Insiders also said that Walsh conducted telephone polling in the 6th, 8th, 10th and 14th congressional districts to see where he might have the easiest race. (Emphasis added.)

Craziness! Note that outside of the 8th, Republican incumbents sit in all of those districts, so I guess Walsh figured Ruscitti would be an easier target than Peter Roskam, Bob Dold, or Randy Hultgren. Anyhow, Hobbs also has some on-the-record quotes from 8th District Republicans who are cheesed off at Walsh. Click the link for the full story—this is politics at its most entertaining.

Senate:

• FL-Sen: PPP has its first GOP primary poll since Rep. Connie Mack's haphazard entry into the race; despite his flailing goofiness, Mack leads the field with 40 percent of the vote, versus 12 for George LeMieux, 4 for Mike McCalister and 3 apiece for Adam Hasner and Craig Miller. The only other time PPP tested Mack was back in March, when he was widely expected to enter the race. Back then, he scored just 28%, so this is an improvement. Tom Jensen also notes that it isn't just name recognition which is hold back Mack's opponents: In direct head-to-heads among voters who have heard of each of the other candidates, Mack still leads every single time. The primary is still quite a ways off (Aug. 14), so there's some time for someone else to make a move, but I think it will be difficult.

• MA-Sen: A new poll from UMass Amherst shows Democrat Elizabeth Warren leading Republican Sen. Scott Brown by a 43-39 margin. The poll was conducted by Internet-based pollster YouGov, so exercise the appropriate level of skepticism—though it's worth noting that YouGov did pretty well in 2010, according to analyst Nate Silver's ratings. One other cool thing about this poll is that it included an open-ended question asking respondents to pick one word that best described each candidate. You can see the resulting word clouds here.

• MT-Sen: Ordinarily, a new PPP Senate poll is cause for a new DKos Election front-page post. But, well, this time, I'm gonna beg off. Why? See below:

When PPP first tested the Montana Senate race last November, Denny Rehberg led Jon Tester by 2 points, 48-46. When PPP tested it in June, Rehberg again led Tester by 2 points, 47-45. And when PPP looked at the contest this week, Rehberg led Tester by... you guessed it... 2 points, 47-45. This is the most stable race PPP has ever polled and quite a marked contrast to the wild Republican Presidential contest.

• NE-Sen: Shira Toeplitz reports that Majority PAC (a Dem outfit) is spending $72K on this pro-Ben Nelson ad this week, which touts his relationship with veterans:

Gubernatorial:

• MO-Gov: Super-wealthy plastics magnate Dave Spence just donated $2 million out of his own pocket to his campaign, some pretty serious seed money as he seeks the GOP gubernatorial nomination. It's also probably meant as a message to Auditor Tom Schweich and attorney/Tea Partier Ed Martin, both of whom are considering entering the primary.

• MT-Gov: PPP also has some numbers for the GOP gubernatorial primary in Montana:

In the Montana Gubernatorial primary Rick Hill continues to be the early front runner with 37% to 10% for Ken Miller, 5% for Jeff Essmann, 4% for Jim Lynch, 3% for Neil Livingstone and Jim O'Hara, 2% for Corey Stapleton, and 1% for Bob Fanning.

Compared to the last time we polled this contest in June Miller's up 4 points and Hill's up 2 points, while Livingstone is down 12 points and Essmann is down 6 points.

I'm guessing this had something to do with Livingstone cratering.

• VA-Gov: This should set off a massive battle within the Virginia Republican Party: Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, an ultra-conservative rising star, just announced plans to run for governor in 2013. Cuccinelli would be attempting to cut in line ahead of Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who declined to run for governor in 2009. That allowed eventual winner Bob McDonnell to avoid a primary, with the understanding, more or less, that Bolling would have the field to himself four years later.

But now, it seems, Bolling took one for the team only to risk getting upstaged by the insurgent Cuccinelli, who is striking while the iron is hot. (He's become a major Tea Party favorite for taking the lead on suing the federal government over healthcare reform.) Bolling would look like a sap if he waited yet again (governors are only allowed to serve a single four-year term in VA), so I have to imagine he'll take the gloves off once this race really gets underway. Should be fun!

• UT-Gov, UT-02: This is odd. Former state Rep. Morgan Philpot, who very nearly defeated Dem Rep. Jim Matheson last year and had long talked about a possible rematch, is changing gears entirely. He now says he plans to run against Gov. Gary Herbert, which actually sounds like some very good news for the incumbent, because Philpot would be the second challenger to enter the Republican contest, after state Rep. Ken Sumsion. This is what we call the "clown car effect," where having multiple upstarts split votes among discontented voters allows an officeholder to skate by with a plurality victory. Of course, last year, Sen. Bob Bennett went down at the GOP convention despite facing two opponents (Tim Bridgewater and eventual victor Mike Lee), but Hebert doesn't seem to be anywhere near as unpopular as Bennett was. (A recent poll mentioned in the article gave Herbert a 71% statewide approval rating.)

House:

• IL-10: This is sort of a crazy story. Military veteran John Tree, who recently joined the Democratic primary, reportedly helped subdue a drunken passenger on an airplane in mid-flight, at the request of flight attendants. The story happened to be corroborated by none other than talking head Chris Matthews, who by chance was on the same plane—but the GOP immediately went into attack mode, sending out a press release titled "Superhero or Super Embellisher?" Click the link for the full details into this bizarre fracas.

• FL-22, FL-16: In Dave Catanese's brief new interview with Allen West, the freshman Republican dismissed but did not outright deny the Miami Herald's report that he's looking to run again fellow GOP Rep. Tom Rooney in the 16th rather than try his hand at what could wind up being a much bluer 22nd. In fact, all he said was: "I don’t know where it came from." To me, that says such a switch is still a possibility.

What's going to get a lot more attention, though, is this remark about Democrat Lois Frankel:

"She’s a career politician looking for her next gig,” West said of Frankel, adding that the mayor herself ran in another district against Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.). “Maybe she likes running against black guys,” he continued, referring to a prior race with Hastings, who is also black.

MD-06: So I guess that whole office holiday party problem just got resolved: Bud Otis, chief of staff to GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, just resigned his post, a day after a Roll Call article said he was looking at running in the Republican primary against… Roscoe Bartlett. Awkward! What I really want to know, though, is this: What the hell was Otis thinking? I mean, aside from stabbing his longtime boss in the back, how long did he think he could get away with this for? He'd reportedly been soliciting support from a run from Maryland legislators, one of whom (rather predictably) decided to dime him out. So what was the endgame supposed to look like? Because this is just embarrassing, and considering he's been friends with Bartlett for thirty years, it makes Otis look like an utter scuzz.

But wait! There's yet another knife in the back for Bartlett! Maryland GOP chair Alex Mooney now says that he, too, plans to seek the Republican nomination. Mooney served three terms in the state Senate but last year achieved that most unusual of distinctions: He was a Republican incumbent who managed to lose in 2010. In any event, this race could get even more crowded still, since the Washington Post's Ben Pershing mentions that yet another legislator, state Sen. Christopher Shank, is also considering the race. (That's on top of state Sen. David Brinkley, whose name first surfaced a day earlier.)

• MO-01: Not sure how much of a tea leaf this is, but the de-districted Russ Carnahan is holding a big holiday fundraiser on Dec. 11 at a St. Louis restaurant which just happens to be located inside the 1st Congressional District. That's the home of Rep. Lacy Clay, whom Carnahan could conceivably challenge in a Democratic primary.

• MT-AL: And wrapping up the Montana trio, PPP also has numbers for a generic matchup for the state's open House seat. They find that generic R leads generic D by a 46-41 spread. (They didn't bother testing actual candidates because last time they did, name rec was so low on all sides as to make the head-to-heads mostly meaningless.)

• PA-08: Two new Democratic names are in the mix as possible candidates against redshirt GOP freshman Mike Fitzpatrick: Kathy Boockvar, who lost a statewide race for Commonwealth Court last month, and Det Ansinn, who also just lost a race for Bucks County Commissioner. Ansinn confirms he's met with the DCCC, and while Boockvar hasn't commented, PoliticsPA's sources say she's also being recruited.

• UT-04: The Club for Growth has their man in Utah's new 4th CD: ultra-conservative state Rep. Carl Wimmer. While the Club is mostly interested in Galtian free market heroes, Wimmer has made a lot of headlines over the last year for a variety of social-con legislation he's sponsored, on abortion, Planned Parenthood, and creating criminal penalties for teachers who violate Utah's super-restrictive sex education laws. Anyhow, this move reminds me of the Club of old, which regularly made boring seats competitive and competitive seats even moreso by supporting unelectable dimwits. The 4th looks like Utah's least-red seat, and Dem Rep. Jim Matheson may seek re-election here, so perhaps the CfG will wind up giving us an assist.

Grab Bag:

• Crossroads: The FEC deadlocked on a request by Karl Rove's American Crossroads to allow the group to coordinate more closely with candidates on what are supposed to be "independent" expenditures. Rick Hasen further explains: "It means no guidance for Crossroads. They could take their chances in front of the FEC (and maybe courts) going forward."

• Polltopia: PPP is looking for questions to add to their new weekly Iowa tracking poll, which looks slated to go into the field this weekend.

Redistricting Roundup:

• CT Redistricting: Connecticut lawmakers just reached an agreement on new state House and Senate maps, but with no deal on a congressional plan in sight, they've asked the state Supreme Court for a thirty-day extension. (The deadline was Wednesday.) Meanwhile, Dem House Speaker (and CT-05 candidate) Chris Donovan resigned from the redistricting panel to head off charges that he was trying to redraw the 5th CD in a way that's beneficial to him. These accusations always struck me as bunk, particularly since legislative Republicans never complained and, in any event, Democrats are known to be pursuing a "least change" plan—and considering the 5th is a mere 523 people too small, that would involve making only the most minimal of changes. But now it's a non-issue altogether.

• OH Redistricting: Ugh, I don't like the sound of this one bit:

Ohio House Minority Leader Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, said Wednesday that he believes that he and Rep. Matt Huffman, R-Lima, have reached agreement on a compromise congressional redistricting plan that could avoid a referendum next year on the plan already enacted.

However, Mike Dittoe, spokesman for House Speaker William Batchelder, R-Medina, said in an email that there was no deal, at least yet.

“Conversations are ongoing and we are hopeful that there will be some level of agreement in the near future,” said Dittoe.

I'd much rather take our chances with a court-drawn map in Ohio. The plan supposedly creates six safe Republican seats, four safe Dem seats, and "six that are competitive, but Republican leaning." I don't see how that's a good deal for Democrats at all, and I would be surprised if a judge drew a map that bad.

• PA Redistricting: The gang at Roll Call says that Pennsylvania Republicans' long-awaited congressional map will supposedly get released on Monday, but this process has gotten teased out forever, so I guess we'll just to wait and see. They also have some details about what the new plan allegedly looks like.

• RI Redistricting: Earlier this week, the commission responsible for redistricting in Rhode Island released not one, not two, but three separate proposals for dividing up the state's two congressional districts. Despite RI's small size, some of the plans manage to offer some pretty radical alterations to the existing district lines. You can check them all out at the link. Commenter sapelcovits also has some thoughts about each of these maps.

• Maps: Thanks to hard work by jeffmd, we are pleased to present Google Maps versions of new congressional redistricting plans in seven more states: Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Utah.

When NDFA -- Northside (Chicago) Democracy for America -- endorsed Leslie Coolidge for Congress in the 6th CD, it was a gesture of support, not any great hope of winning. The 6th, which has been Republican for many terms, was redistricted as a "Red Sink" by the Democratic IL legislature.

With Ryan raised to prominence, and the Ryan budget raised to prominence with him, though, the race starts to look possible. Pete Roskam, the Republican incumbent, voted for the Ryan budget every chance he had.

The Coolidge Campaign has begun to canvas to get her name out there. Saturday, I went out to participate. It wasn't the best day to get from Chicago to the far western suburbs -- the "Air and Water Show" was going on, and the roads were jammed. Two others who planned to go out were defeated by the traffic. Once we got in the field, though, it was near-ideal canvassing weather.

The precinct we covered was previously part of the 8th CD (Joe Walsh). If Leslie was unknown, Roskam wasn't known all that much better. I hit doors selected by the campaign, and often got a warm response.

The hip-replaced canvassing team

I was back in the 6th CD (of IL) canvassing for Lisa Coolidge, who is running against Cong. Pete Roskam. A driver from the district and I were given a precinct. I learned that he had had a hip-replacement operation, too. (His went much better than mine.)

So, there we were -- two guys who had replacement hips walking a precinct.

The reception among those who were actually home was mixed. Some were glad that some Democrat was actually doing something. Roskam had voted for the Ryan budget with its replacement of Medicare with a subsidy for private insurance companies.

This is an uphill battle. The Democratic legislature had redistricted so that Republican majorities were in a few CDs, and this is supposed to be one of the red ones. On the other hand, it's not all that red. It's socially liberal, and Roskam is socially conservative -- as well as fiscally reactionary.

Part of my personal triumph was that I navigated the transportation system to get out there. (The last time I went, a guy picked me up.) A 3/4 mile walk got me to the bus that ran for miles to the Jefferson Park transit hub. (The bus turns around there. It's the terminus for the blue line of the EL. It's a Metra -- local commuter rail -- station. All in more or less the same building.)

As a result of the 2010 Census, Illinois will lose one seat in the United States House of Representatives, going from 19 seats to 18 seats. Since the Illinois General Assembly, which is responsible for redistricting in Illinois, is completely controlled by Democrats, and Democrat Pat Quinn is our governor, redistricting strongly favored Democrats. Factoring in incumbent Rep. Donald Manzullo's Republican primary defeat to fellow incumbent Rep. Adam Kinzinger in IL-16, Republicans have a 9-7-2 incumbency advantage in Illinois's U.S. House delegation going into the general election, with Republican Rep. Tim Johnson and Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello having announced their retirements.

I will provide race ratings for each of Illinois's 18 Congressional Districts. These ratings are subject to change at any time.

IL-1: Chicago-Tinley Park

Democratic Nominee: Bobby Rush
Republican Nominee: Donald Peloquin

Peloquin is a stronger opponent for Rush than perennial candidate Raymond Wardingley, and Rush's district was made slightly more favorable to Republicans in redistricting by adding areas of Will County east of Joliet. That's not saying much, though: IL-1 is still Black-majority and heavily Democratic. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-2: Chicago-Kankakee

Democratic Nominee: Jesse Jackson Jr.
Republican Nominee: Brian Woodworth

Jackson threw a royal fit after his Black-majority district was extended southward to include Kankakee County. However, Jackson should have an even easier time in the general election than he did in the Democratic primary, where he beat Deborah Halvorson by a wide margin. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-3: Chicago-Lockport

Democratic Nominee: Dan Lipinski
Republican Nominee: Richard Grabowski

Here is the first of two pick-up opportunities that Republicans have in Illinois. Obama won this district with only 58% of the vote in the 2008 Presidential election, making it a D+2 district. While Lipinski, a Blue Dog, has the backing of Mike Madigan and his Chicago Machine allies, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Republicans made a play for this district with their nominee, Richard Grabowski. However, Lipinski has the advantage in this race. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

IL-4: Chicago-Cicero

Democratic Nominee: Luis Gutierrez
Write-in Candidates: Jorge Savala (D), Hector Concepcion (R)

I don't know if Savala and Concepcion's write-in candidacies were in the primaries or are in the general election, but, either way, Gutierrez is safe in this Hispanic-majority, heavily Democratic, and earmuff-shaped district. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-5: Chicago-North Lake

Democratic Nominee: Mike Quigley
Republican Nominee: Dan Schmitt

Quigley's district, based in Chicago's North Side, was made slightly more favorable to Republicans by taking in portions of eastern DuPage county. This district is heavily Democratic, so Quigley appears to be safe. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-6: Naperville-Palatine

Democratic Nominee: Leslie Coolidge
Republican Nominee: Peter Roskam

Roskam's district was drawn as a Collar Counties Republican vote-sink, yet I wouldn't call this a safe district for Roskam, although it would be difficult for Coolidge to win this one for the Democrats. This district is trending away from Republicans, but I can't see it electing a Democrat to Congress in 2012. Nonetheless, the potential is there. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

IL-7: Chicago-Oak Park

Democratic Nominee: Danny Davis

Danny Davis is currently unopposed in this district after winning the Democratic primary in this district, which is Black-majority and the most Democratic district in Illinois. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-8: Elgin-Schamburg

Democratic Nominee: Tammy Duckworth
Republican Nominee: Joe Walsh
Write-in Candidate: Robert Canfield (R)

I don't know if Canfield's write-in campaign was in the Republican primary or is in the general election, but Joe Walsh is the incumbent Republican in this district, but a perfect storm of circumstances is working against him: his district was made significantly more favorable to Democrats in redistricting and doesn't even include his hometown of McHenry, several videos of him shooting his mouth off have surfaced on the internet, he only recently paid back child support, and he has a strong opponent in Tammy Duckworth, who won a hard-fought Democratic primary against Raja Krishnamoorthi. As much as I would like to call this a certain Democratic pickup for Duckworth, Walsh is the incumbent, ableit a wildly unpopular one. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

IL-9: Chicago-Evanston

Democratic Nominee: Jan Schakowsky
Republican Nominee: Timothy Wolfe
Write-in Candidate: Susanne Atanus (R)

I don't know if Atanus's write-in campaign was in the Republican primary or is in the general election, but I can't see Atanus or Wolfe, the official Republican nominee, defeating Schakowsky, whose Evanston-based district is still solidly Democratic despite redistricting. Schakowsky isn't a strong campaigner and is a liberal ideologue, but she is safe. SAFE DEMOCRATIC

IL-10: Waukegan-Deerfield

Democratic Nominee: Brad Schneider
Republican Nominee: Robert Dold

This will be a competitive race, for sure. Dold barely won this in an open-seat scenario in 2010 against Democrat Dan Seals, and the district is still a Waukegan-based district, despite the fact that Dold's hometown of Kenilworth was drawn out of it. Schnieder, who won a hard-fought Democratic primary, appears to be idelogically similar to Seals, so this will be a competitive race once again. I'd give Schneider the slight edge here, given the fact that this is a presidential election year in which Obama, an Illinois native himself, is at the top of the ticket for Democrats. TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC

IL-11: Joliet-Aurora

Democratic Nominee: Bill Foster
Republican Nominee: Judy Biggert

As a result of redistricting, the old IL-13 was renumbered IL-11 and made more favorable to Democrats by taking in Joliet, Aurora, and areas in between. Biggert is the Republican incumbent here, and she is going to have a tough fight for re-election as Democrats nominated former IL-14 Representative Bill Foster, who was defeated by Randy Hultgren in 2010. Given the fact that Biggert has the incumbency advantage and she hasn't made herself the laughing stock of Illinois like Walsh has, Biggert has a reasonable chance of being re-elected, but it'll be an uphill climb. LEAN DEMOCRATIC

IL-12: East St. Louis-Carbondale

Democratic Nominee: Brad Harriman
Republican Nominee: Jason Plummer
Independent Candidate: Retha Daugherty (potential)

Given the fact that Democratic incumbent Jerry Costello is retiring, this district is trending red, and Republicans have a formidable candidate in Jason Plummer, who was narrowly defeated by Sheila Simon for Lieutenant Governor of Illinois in 2010, one would think that all hope is lost for Democrats. Democrats had a candidate that seemed to fit this district well in Brad Harriman, who won a 3-way Democratic primary on March 20, but Harriman has withdrawn his nomination for health reasons, so 12 Democratic county chairpersons will select a replacement nominee, but a date for such a meeting has yet to be set. Potential candidates include, but are not limited to, John Bradley, Jerry Costello II, Sheila Simon, Chris Miller, Kenneth Wiezer, and Bill Haine. Independent candidate Retha Daugherty may also gain ballot access, although I can't envision any scenario in which she would play anything more than a spoiler role in this race. This is the second of two pick-up opportunities for Republicans in Illinois, and it's the easier of the two for Republicans. LEAN DEMOCRATIC

IL-13: Champaign-Springfield

Democratic Nominee: David Gill
Republican Nominee: Rodney Davis
Independent Candidate: John Hartman (potential)

As a result of redistricting, IL-15 was renumbered IL-13 and made more favorable to Democrats, now extending from Urbana in Champaign County to the Mississippi River in Calhoun County. However, this district doesn't strongly favor either party. Republican incumbent Tim Johnson won a three-way Republican primary, then decided that he wasn't going to seek re-election after all. Republican county chairmen in the 14 counties that compromise IL-13 selected Rodney Davis, an aide to John Shimkus, to replace Johnson as the Republican nominee on May 19. David Gill narrowly beat Matt Goetten in the Democratic Primary. Gill is a very liberal Democrat, and Davis has clear ties to a very conservative Republican, so this will be a base election, and turnout will be vital in this evenly-divided district. TOSSUP

IL-14: McHenry-Yorkville

Democratic Nominee: Dennis Anderson
Republican Nominee: Randy Hultgren

As a result of the old IL-11 and the old IL-16 effectively being merged as a result of redistricting, IL-14 was forced northward into the McHenry area. This made this already Republican-leaning district slightly more favorable to Republicans, and Hultgren is strongly favored to win re-election. Joe Walsh, whose home was drawn into this district, originally planned to run in a Republican primary against Hultgren, but Walsh decided to run in IL-8. Had Walsh run against Hultgren in an IL-14 Republican primary and won the Republican nomination, this would be a competitive race, given the amount of baggage Walsh has. However, since Walsh is running in another district, and Hultgren was unopposed for the Republican nomination, Hultgren should have little trouble getting re-elected. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

IL-15: Danville-Harrisburg

Democratic Nominee: Angela Michael (Fake)
Republican Nominee: John Shimkus

Since IL-19 was apportioned out of existence as a result of the 2010 Census, the Southern Illinois-based IL-19 was renumbered IL-15 and extended northward to include areas of East Central Illinois. This is the most Republican district in Illinois. Shimkus is infinitely safe in this district, as the Democrat running against him, Angela Michael, is not even running a legitimate campaign for public office, in fact, either ran or planned to run graphic anti-abortion ads in the St. Louis media market. SAFE REPUBLICAN

IL-16: LaSalle-Watseka

Democratic Nominee: TBD
Republican Nominee: Adam Kinzinger

As a result of Illinois losing one seat in apportionment, the old IL-16 and IL-11 were effectively merged as the new IL-16. Two Republican incumbents, Adam Kinzinger and Donald Manzullo, ran for the Republican nomination in this Republican-leaning district that extends from South Beloit in Winnebago County to Sheldon in Iroquois County. Kinzinger narrowly defeated Manzullo, which may be the only challenge Kinzinger will have, as he is currently unopposed in the general election, although there is a movement to slate Wanda Rohl as the Democratic nominee. Regardless of whether or not Rohl is slated, Kinzinger is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN

IL-17: Moline-Freeport

Democratic Nominee: Cheri Bustos
Republican Nominee: Bobby Schilling
Independent Candidate: Eric Reyes

IL-17 was shifted northward as a result of IL-18 being extended westward in redistricting, and now extends from Peoria to Moline to Rockford. This has made this district more compact and even more Democratic-leaning than the old IL-17. Yet, it has a Republican incumbent, Bobby Schilling, swept in by the 2010 Republican wave. Cheri Bustos won a three-way Democratic primary and is the Democratic nominee in this district, and a formidable one at that, with strong establishment backing. Bustos has the edge in this race, but Schilling is the incumbent and Reyes may play a spoiler role. LEAN DEMOCRATIC

IL-18: Lincoln-Quincy

Republican Nominee: Aaron Schock
Democratic Nominee: Steve Waterworth

IL-18 now extends from eastern McLean County to Quincy, making it a Republican vote-sink that includes much of Central and Western Illinois. Schock, the Republican incumbent, is safe in this district, as perennial candidate Steve Waterworth won the Democratic primary. SAFE REPUBLICAN

Summary of Race Ratings:
SAFE REPUBLICAN: 3 (IL-15, IL-16, IL-18)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN: 2 (IL-6, IL-14)
LEAN REPUBLICAN: NONE
TOSSUP/TILT REPUBLICAN: NONE
TOSSUP: 1 (IL-13)
TOSSUP/TILT DEMOCRATIC: 1 (IL-10)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC: 3 (IL-11, IL-12, IL-17)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC: 2 (IL-3, IL-8)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC: 6 (IL-1, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-9)

The vote to reopen the government divided the Republicans into two groups:
The ones who were more afraid of a Tea-Party challenge in the primary voted nay.
The ones who were more afraid of a Democratic challenge in the general voted yea.

(Of course, there were some Tea-Party true believers who voted nay, and there may even have been some Republicans who voted yea because they thought that it was best for their country.)

Well, back in '12, I was part of an NDFA effort to support Coolidge against right-wing Republican Pete Roskam in the IL-06 CD. I liked Ms. Coolidge; I wasn't too impressed with the campaign itself.

Roskam, OTOH, must have been impressed with the campaign. He voted yea.

So, I'll count that as a partial win. We may not have got a Democrat in Congress by our efforts, but we got a Republican who is watching his back.

Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) could face a real loss of support over the minimum wage.

Minimum wage had the smallest edge on both measures in Colorado's sixth district, where 50 percent of voters said they wanted to see it raised from $7.25 to $10.10 to 44 percent who did not, and 35 percent said they'd be less likely to vote for incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman if he voted against raising the minimum wage, while 30 percent said they'd be more likely to support him. So that's the good news for Republicans. On the other hand, in New York's 11th district, 62 percent of voters support a $10.10 minimum wage to 31 percent who do not, and 44 percent of voters would be less likely to vote for Rep. Michael Grimm if he voted against the minimum wage increase, to 25 percent who would be more likely to do so. Special mention also goes to Michigan's eighth district, where Rep. Mike Rogers is retiring and where 54 percent of voters support a minimum wage increase to 39 percent who oppose it.

Raising the minimum wage had a lead of 10 points or more in 11 of the 13 districts, and voters said they'd be less likely to support an incumbent opposing a minimum wage increase by a 10-point margin in 10 of the districts. (As is the case with any internal polling, unfavorable polls can be kept private.)

This is news that has to redouble the Republican refusal to allow a vote on raising the minimum wage, to keep Republicans in swing districts from being forced to take such an unpopular vote. The task for Democrats is to hang the refusal to even allow a minimum wage vote around Republicans' necks so that even without an actual vote on the issue, voters go to the polls in November knowing where their Republican incumbents stand. If House Republicans in swing districts went to Speaker John Boehner and demanded a minimum wage vote, or joined with Democrats in signing a discharge petition, that could make an actual difference. If they won't do that, it's as good as a vote against.

Leading Off

●WI-Gov: GOP Gov. Scott Walker hasn't announced if he'll seek a third term in 2018, though he says he's considering it. While Walker's presidential bid fizzled out well before the Iowa caucus, any Democrat knows that going toe to toe with the well-connected governor would not be easy. However, a number of Badger State Democrats have made noises about seeking the governorship. 

State Senate Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling, who held her seat in November by 61 votes, didn't rule out a bid earlier this month, saying it would be a family decision. State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, who took just 4 percent of the vote in the 2012 primary to face Walker, recently acknowledged that she's thinking about another run. 

Back in May, Joe Parisi, the executive of Madison's Dane County, didn't rule out a gubernatorial run, though he said he was still seeking re-election in 2017. In July, ex-state Sen. Tim Cullen also said he was considering; back in 2012, Cullen briefly left the Democratic caucus even though it threatened the party's one-seat hold over the state Senate, so he may not be the ideal Democratic standard bearer. 2014 Attorney General nominee Susan Happ has also set up social media accounts ahead of an unnamed statewide bid. WISN, a local ABC affiliate, also recently mentioned Assemblyman Dana Wachs as a possible candidate, though he doesn't appear to have publicly talked about running yet. 

Rep. Ron Kind's name is also periodically mentioned, though he also doesn't seem to have publicly expressed interest in running. Donald Trump performed well in Kind's rural central Wisconsin seat last month, and Democrats may have a tough time holding onto the 3rd District without him. However, Democrats may benefit from having a nominee with a rural base, and Kind may also want to get out of the House before his seat can get any worse.

Illinois Congressman Peter Roskam has been avoiding public town hall forums for the past six months or so.  400+ constituents from his 6th Congressional District would have liked to have a word with him yesterday,  but weren’t allowed into his meeting with Palatine Illinois Republicans.   Roskam fled through the back door.  A recent story in Crain’s Chicago Business reported that a Roskam staffer had said “ ...he will never hold an open town hall meeting.”

Leading Off

●CT-Gov: On Thursday, Connecticut Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy announced that he would not seek a third term next year. While Malloy narrowly won re-election during the 2014 GOP wave, he has posted horrible approval ratings over the last few years. As we've mentioned before, Malloy has suffered from the perception that Connecticut hasn't recovered from the Great Recession as well as its neighbors have. Malloy also has had to deal with ugly headlines from state employee layoffs and from General Electric moving its headquarters from Connecticut to Boston. Malloy is currently trying to convince state employee unions to accept concessions in order to help plug the state's $1.7 billion deficit.

Malloy's decision undoubtedly comes as a relief to his fellow Democrats. While Connecticut is a dependably blue state in federal elections, it has been more than willing to send Republicans to the governor's office. Before Malloy's 2010 victory, the last time a Democrat won the governorship was in 1986, when Gov. William O'Neill was re-elected.

Republicans will certainly do everything they can to argue that whoever emerges with the Democratic nomination next year will continue Malloy's unpopular governorship, but their job won't be quite as easy without the incumbent on the ballot. Donald Trump lost the Nutmeg State 55-41, and Democrats will try and connect the GOP's gubernatorial nominee to the White House.

Republicans were already gearing up for this race before Malloy made his move. Shelton Mayor Mark Lauretti and state Rep. Prasad Srinivasan have each announced that they will run, while former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker; Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton; Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst; businessman Steve Obsitnik; attorney Peter Lumaj; and state Sen. Toni Boucher have all formed exploratory committees. There is no clear frontrunner at this point, and it's very possible that there are other GOP candidates considering getting in. It's also possible that some of the people who have formed exploratory committees will end up seeking a different statewide office.

The DCCC is taking sides in the IL-06  congressional race against Peter rawscum, the current congressman

Some of you might know how he came to the position. The DCCC, then under Rham Emanuel, took sides in the democratic primary and spent a million dollars to shaft the local supported progressive candidate Christine Cegelis, the person who ran against Henry Hyde the cycle before. When Hyde retired due to illness and a lack of desire to run another competitive race the seat was open.  The DCCC then ignored Christine, actually sabotaged her, and forced on the district Tammy duckworth. You know duckworth. At the time she was new to politics and still not near recovered enough to run a vigorous race. That and she did not live in the district, nor did she run on an anti war platform, she actually parroted bush’s “we’ll stand down as the Iraqis stand up” line and focused on AMT.  This was in an area where the democrats at the time were very much anti war.  The DCCC then spent another 6 million on the race but lost badly.

Well they are at it again.  They are sponsoring another former military hack and pentagon employee who lives an hour away from the nearest part of the district even though there are better local candidates, some who have already run in the district.  As an anti war person I just wish the DCCC would stop trying to force military people on this district and update their profile of what they think will work in this district, barring that they should just stay the fuck out of the primary process.  If they don't change IL-06 will have a republican like Peter roscam forever.

also, please read this summary from another candidate.

downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/…

Other context

www.dailykos.com/…

www.dailykos.com/…

Leading Off

●MT-AL: After their close call with a first-round knockout in Tuesday's Georgia 6th District special election, national Republicans are sounding the alarms ahead of Montana's own May 25 special election for its lone House seat. The NRCC has added $1.2 million in TV ad reservations, while the House GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund Super PAC is airing a new ad that attacks Democrat Rob Quist as part of an $800,000 buy. CLF tries to tie Quist to Nancy Pelosi, skewering him for wanting government-funded health care and supposedly supporting cuts to the defense budget, while they also hit him for his past debt troubles.​

​Meanwhile, Republican Greg Gianforte released an ad that warns Quist wants a national gun registry "in a big government computer," which Gianforte claims could lead to "federal bureaucrats [grabbing] your guns." He then fires a shotgun at a computer monitor flashing the word "confiscate" and destroys it, promising he'll stand up for the 2nd Amendment.

Gianforte's spot and a recent NRCC ad are both hammering Quist over an earlier interview where Quist spoke favorably about registering assault weapons like one registers a car. In response, Quist himself previously debuted an ad on Thursday to tout his own support for the 2nd Amendment where he too shoots a TV screen displaying an attack ad.

There’s one thing we can agree Trump has achieved in his first 100 days: activating a fired-up resistance movement.

In Swing Left’s first 100 days, over 300,000 of us have signed up to take back the House in 2018. We’ve held canvassing events in every single Swing District and raised nearly $200,000 in donations for Democrats.

And today,we’re officially expanding our map of Swing Districts—adding 12 (twelve!) more competitive districts we now believe are swingable per Democratic gains in recent elections.

We made a video with NowThis to celebrate 100 days of Swing Left and share our new districts. Check it out, then share it with anyone you think should join the mission to win back the House.

Why is Swing Left adding 12 new Swing Districts?

Swing Left is a national grassroots network of over 300,000 volunteers supporting Democratic candidates in Swing Districts, with the goal of flipping the House in 2018. 

We’re adding 12 new Swing Districts today because our momentum is real all across the country. We saw it play out in the two special elections that have taken place so far, where Democrats dramatically outperformed their 2016 shares of the vote.

These new Swing Districts are: CA-21, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, IL-06, MT-AL, NY-24, NY-11, PA-07, TX-32,VA-02, and WA-08. The decision to select these 12 specific districts was based on months of careful research, including feedback from both volunteers and experts such as the Daily Kos Elections team's David Beard and Stephen Wolf. Our map now includes every district where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump, as well as additional districts that are worthwhile targets because of proximity to large groups of Swing Left volunteers.

We only need to flip 24 seats to win back the House next year.This is a winnable fight. Organizing in 12 more Swing Districts makes that goal even more achievable, but it also means there’s more work to do.

Here’s two easy ways you can help right now: 

1. Pass this video on to friends—and ask them to join Swing Left.

2. If you’re new to Swing Left,find your closest Swing District now and join its team to learn about actionable opportunities to support Democrats—and defeat Republicans—in that district, no matter where you live.

Thanks to all who’ve done so much  these last 100 days. There’s a lot of work still to do, and we couldn’t be prouder to be fighting alongside you.

Ethan, Miriam, Michelle, Matt, and the Swing Left Team