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    House: House Republicans just narrowly passed their Trumpcare bill on Thursday, voting to kick tens of millions off of their insurance and make health care unaffordable for countless Americans. Daily Kos Elections mapped out the 2016 presidential election result for all 217 House Republicans who voted in favor of the bill here.

    Of the 23 members who hold districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 14 Republicans voted for the bill, as did another 10 of those whose seats Trump won with less than 50 percent (excluding districts in Utah, where conservative independent Evan McMullin drew substantially from Republicans). Democrats need to gain exactly 24 Republican-held seats while defending all 194 of their own to capture control of the House in 2018, and these 24 Trumpcare supporters will likely be prime targets.

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    This second map, which is at the top of this post, illustrates how every House Republican member voted and whether their district favored Clinton or Donald Trump in 2016. Only 11 of the 20 Republicans who voted no came from districts that Trump carried, even fewer than the 14 in Clinton seats who favored the bill.

    Finally, this chart shows the 2016 and 2012 presidential results and the 2016 House results for the 24 Republicans who voted yes in seats where Trump got less than 50 percent of the vote, aside from Utah. Ranking the districts from Trump's worst to best margin, the Republican in the bluest seat to support the bill was Rep. Carlos Curbelo, whose heavily Cuban-American Miami-area Florida 27th District favored Clinton by a staggering 57-41.


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    I’m Kelly Mazeski and I’m running for Congress to hold Peter Roskam (IL-06) accountable for voting for the Republican health care plan that makes you pay more and get less, and causes 24 million Americans to lose coverage.

    Like many in the Daily Kos community, I really struggled with our health care system.  At one point, I even lost my health insurance.  I’m deeply concerned that as a cancer survivor and the mother of a daughter with a rare illness, people with pre-existing conditions like us will lose health coverage if the Republican plan becomes law.

    Roskam wants us to believe, “Under no circumstances can people be denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition.”

    With all due respect, Congressman, my doctors saved my life from breast cancer.  So I trust them over you and Donald Trump when the largest association of physicians says, “Americans with pre-existing conditions will be stuck in second-class health care coverage – if they are able to obtain coverage at all.”

    That’s simply unacceptable.  The Affordable Care Act isn’t perfect.  There are many things we can do to improve the current law, but Trumpcare, that Roskam voted for at every stage is a massive step backwards.

    What’s worse is if Roskam and just one other Republican would have voted no, this terrible bill would not have passed the House.  Crain’s Chicago Business wrote:

    Had Reps. Randy Hultgren of Plano, Adam Kinzinger of Joliet and Peter Roskam of Wheaton voted "no" instead of "yes," a measure that passed 217-213 would have lost, assuming all other members' votes remained unchanged. In fact, had two of the three switched, the measure would have failed on a tie 215-215 vote.

    Roskam helped pave the way for the health care vote back in March as a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, where he voted for an age tax, which would allow insurance companies to charge people over age 50 five times as much as they charge others.  Estimates by AARP have found that the age tax in the AHCA could hike insurance premiums for people ages 60-64 by more than $3,000 a year — to almost $18,000 annually. People between 50 and 59 would see a $1,500 hike to almost $13,000 a year.

    As I begin my campaign, I’m inspired by the amazing support the Daily Kos community is giving to defeat Republicans like Peter Roskam.

    Donate $25 to Help Me Defeat Peter Roskam

    I’m incredibly humbled by the attention my campaign has received by announcing on the day of the health care vote from all five local broadcast networks to the New York Times.

    But this is going to be a very long, difficult and expensive campaign.  While it’s encouraging that  the Cook Political Report moved IL-06 from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, following Roskam’s vote, it also means Washington Republicans and the Koch Brothers will spend millions against me to defend Roskam’s seat.

    I need your support on the ground, online and with campaign donations. I promise to work hard every day on the campaign trail and in Congress to stand up to Donald Trump and the Republicans who would rather give a massive tax cut to billionaires instead of protecting and expanding health care coverage for millions of Americans.

    Sign up on my website, follow me on Facebook and consider giving $25 to help me defeat Peter Roskam next November.

    Thank you and I look forward to working with the members of Daily Kos to take back the House in 2018!


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    It’s been a long time since I’ve posted or commented. Had to delete my diaries . . .  long story, 

    I do believe people need to know about a great candidate who can take down Rep. Peter Roskam in Congressional IL-6, a swing district.

    Amanda Howland saw the vision in 2016 when no one else did — including the sleeping DCCC. On her own, with little money, she pulled in 42% of the vote. She has the name recognition and from 2016 on she has built a great team. Give her a look, volunteer and donate if you can!


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    AZ-02: Another PPP poll pitting a generic Democratic challenger against a Republican House incumbent from the new progressive group Save My Care once again—as you'd expect—finds dismal news for Republicans. This time, the target Save My Care has in its sights is Rep. Martha McSally, who became the poster child for the GOP's reckless charge to repeal Obamacare when she reportedly exhorted her colleagues just before the vote with the Leeroy Jenkins-style battle cry, "Let's get this fucking thing done!"

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    McSally could wind up done next year, too, since she currently trails an unnamed "Democratic opponent" 50-43. Now, don't get too excited: The other day, after Save My Care released a similar poll in Nevada, we explained why generic tests like these must be viewed with great caution. However, there's another result from this survey that should actually worry McSally even more: her job approval rating, which stands at an awful 35-56.

    Now, it's still extremely early, and plenty of politicians have turned around terrible numbers by Election Day before. But data like these could still be meaningful, because they might inspire strong challengers to run against McSally. Indeed, we've seen a huge upsurge in interest among Democrats compared to last year, when the party struggled to land worthy recruits.

    And now we have word that one of those potential challengers—perhaps the biggest name of all—is indeed considering: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who represented the neighboring 1st District until this year, and had reportedly been considering a comeback bid in the 2nd, just confirmed that she has indeed moved to Tucson and is thinking about the race.

    Would Kirkpatrick make a good candidate, though? It's hard to say. On the one hand, she won difficult races in the 1st, a seat that had gone for Mitt Romney, even managing to hang on in the 2014 GOP wave. On the other, she badly lost her challenge to Sen. John McCain last year by a 54-41 margin, and the carpetbagger charges would be obvious. However, it very much looks like we're headed toward a contested primary, so local Democratic voters will have the chance to hash these issues out ahead of the general election.


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  • 10/20/08--17:13: IL 06 Woman's Right's
  • We are in a tough fight in the IL 6th district. Our current Rep, Peter Roskam, is against a woman's right to choose in any case. Rape, incest, woman's health at risk -- doesn't care.

    He is supporting legislation that is very cleverly worded. It would insist that every viable fertilized embryo -- yes, those fertilized eggs in storage from fertility clinics, would be required by law to be brought to term. (I guess not by the actual parents, but be made available to others.)

    While this sounds like an interesting way for a fertility clinic to earn some extra income, the whole thing just seems so ridiculous that I can't imagine it passing. More likely, it is one of those bills set up to pander to the base with enough foolishness in it that it won't ever be brought to the floor, but the candidate can say that he tried. Jill has a cute response that hits to the point, below the fold.


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  • 10/31/08--17:06: IL-06 Right to Choice
  • Republican Peter Roskam recently asked this question in an interview: "Why can women have abortions if rapists can't be executed?"

    Roskam equates rape with abortion. If an expectant mother is suffering from a serious illness, and the proper medical procedure is to interrupt the pregnancy to prevent the death of the mother, Roskam says that is the same as rape. And he wants to legislate all of these social issues, including in-vitro fertilization. (Make it a rule that all embryo's are brought to fruition. As in born. Federal law.) We think that Roskam is a right wing nut job who doesn't represent the sixth district.


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    Matt Frei's diary: Evangelical and environmental?

    If the green movement truly wants to convert America it needs to convert more evangelical Christians. Let me explain.

    This week, I spoke to Pastor Tri Robinson from the Vineyard Church in Boise, Idaho, who described to me his journey from scepticism to conviction about the need to tackle climate change via the Bible.

    This is a growing trend inside the evangelical movement.

    Pastor Tri described himself as both a "tree-hugger and a social conservative".

    He is against abortion and for caps on carbon emissions. And he prays that he won't have to choose between the two at the next election.

    But that is exactly what awaits him because for now there is no prominent conservative politician on the horizon who is, to put it bluntly, both pro-life and pro-planet.

    Remember how the last Republican convention was electrified by the call to "drill baby drill"?

    Pastor Tri and his flock are looking for a political home.

    The candidate who is able to give them one, who can straddle the divide between social conservatism and environmental activism, who can recruit God in the service of the planet, is onto a winner.


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  • 12/21/09--16:43: Little Boxes
  • We are politically active. We think politically. We act politically.

    Guess what?

    Most American’s don’t.

    Putting ideals into little boxes that are "liberal" or "progressive" hurts us more than it helps us.

    Justin Glick over at Next American City writes:

    I just finished Tony Judt’s piece in the NYRB on how to revive social democracy, and perhaps it’s just because I myself strongly sympathize with social democratic ideals, but I think a lot of what he has to say will resonate for many Americans on both the left and the right.

    I just spent time on the campaign trail with several candidates that do not pass the local litmus test of what fits in a "progressive" box but by my experience are extremely progressive.


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    The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.

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    MT-Sen: National Republicans were disappointed when ex-Rep. Ryan Zinke took a Trump cabinet post rather than challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, and they weren't happy when Attorney General Tim Fox also announced that he would stay out of the Senate race. Their attention has since turned to Matt Rosendale, who was elected state auditor just last year. Roll Call's Simone Pathé reports that Rosendale is "expected" to decide within the month, and an unnamed person close to Rosendale insists he's "95 percent there."

    However, Republicans aren't unanimous in how they feel about him. On the one hand, Rosendale was born in Maryland and still has the accent to prove it. As a counterpoint, his defenders note that Rosendale lived in Montana for years before first seeking office in 2010. Some Republicans also think that Rosendale could help neutralize Tester's everyday Montanan image, noting that the auditor shares the same buzzcut that Tester has emphasized in his campaign ads.

    But Rosendale's fundraising ability may also be an issue. During his 2014 House race, where he took a close third place to Zinke in the GOP primary, Rosendale loaned his campaign $1.3 million, but raised only $187,000 from donors. Still, though a few other Republicans are already running or considering, no one seems to be standing out yet, so despite his weaknesses Rosendale would have the chance to become his party's frontrunner.


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    The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.

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    VA-Gov: Monmouth is out with their first poll of this fall's Virginia governor's race, and they have Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam tied 44-44; 3 percent back Libertarian Cliff Hyra, while 9 percent are undecided. One optimistic sign for Northam is that Trump posts an awful 22-60 disapproval rating among voters who aren't supporting either major party candidate. By contrast, Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who is termed out, has a 42-34 approval rating with this group.

    We've only seen one other independent poll since last month's primary, and it showed a very different result. A month ago, Quinnipiac showed Northam up 47-39. Just after the primary, Gillespie's team released a Public Opinion Strategies poll giving him a 46-45 lead over Northam. Days later, Harper Polling, a GOP group that doesn't seem to have been polling for a client, showed a 46-46 tie. In any case, both parties are going to fight very hard to score a win here this fall.


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    The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.

    MD-06, MD-Gov: Ah, just what Democrats have been clamoring for: a rich moderate former banker who likes to punch at the left is running for president! All the luck in the world to Rep. John Delaney. Later, bro.

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    Anyhow, Delaney's decision to leave Maryland politics behind for the national scene impacts two elections next year. One is the race for governor, which he'd been contemplating for some time. With Delaney gone, other candidates either in the contest or considering it now no longer have to worry that he might flood the race with his own money (estimated net worth: $215 million).

    Beyond that, though, Delaney doesn't have much of a base or even a profile outside of his congressional district, which includes a large portion of Montgomery County in the D.C. suburbs, as well as some heavily Republican territory in the ancestrally red northwest corner of the state. Based on those considerations alone, he probably wasn't keeping anyone out of the primary for the right to take on GOP Gov. Larry Hogan.

    Rather, it's that House seat where Delaney's departure will be more acutely felt. Maryland was one of just a handful of states where Democrats controlled the redistricting process ahead of the 2012 elections, and lawmakers redrew the GOP-held 6th District to make it more amenable to a Democratic candidate—specifically Rob Garagiola, the state Senate majority leader at the time. The old 6th had gone 58-40 for John McCain in 2008, but the current version voted 56-42 for Barack Obama that year.

    In a surprise, though, Delaney, then a political newcomer, used his personal wealth and an endorsement from Bill Clinton to crush Garagiola 54-29 in the primary. Delaney went on to unseat longtime Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett by a wide 59-38 margin, making his hold on this district look secure. Looks, however, proved deceiving, as Delaney nearly got a huge shock the following cycle, beating back an unheralded GOP opponent by just a single point in 2014.


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    The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.

    Leading Off

    NV-Sen, NV-03: Can Democrats be this lucky? Businessman Danny Tarkanian, a deeply flawed perennial candidate who has lost five races as a Republican in the Silver State, had been considering another bid for the 3rd Congressional District, but he announced on Tuesday that he'll mount a primary challenge from the right against GOP Sen. Dean Heller. Heller is likely the most vulnerable Republican senator facing re-election next year since he's the only one whose state voted for Hillary Clinton, and Heller already has a major Democratic opponent in the form of Rep. Jacky Rosen.

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    Tarkanian may have notoriously failed to win public office yet, but his unrelenting conservatism and famous name—his father, Jerry Tarkanian, was the legendary UNLV basketball coach—keep helping him snatch the GOP nomination. Tarkanian's most recent election saw him run for Nevada's 3rd Congressional District in the Las Vegas suburbs in 2016. Little Tark beat then-state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, the party establishment's preference, in the Republican primary, but Tarkanian went on to lose 47-46 to Rosen herself even as Trump flipped that seat and won it 48-47. Tarkanian's previous failures include losing a race for the 4th Congressional District in 2012 and the Senate in 2010.

    One reason Tarkanian would be such a weak candidate if he ousts Heller to secure the nomination is his record of failure in his business career. Tarkanian and his family had guaranteed bad loans in a venture to build an "equestrian destination resort." He then had to declare bankruptcy in 2012 after being hit with a $17 million judgment and ended up settling the matter for $525,000. Democrats mercilessly attacked Tarkanian as a shady businessman last year on top of using his several failed runs for office to portray him as a desperate power-seeker. Team Blue would likely be pleased if next year's Senate contest turns into a rematch of Tarkanian and Rosen on even bluer turf.


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