The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●AK-Gov: On behalf of independent Gov. Bill Walker, Patinkin Research Strategies is out with a poll that gives former state Sen. and likely GOP nominee Mike Dunleavy a 36-28 lead over the incumbent, while former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich takes third with 22. The only other poll we've seen of this three-way race was from June Alaska Survey Research for the Alaska Correctional Officers Association that had Dunleavy leading Begich 38-33, while Walker was a distant third with 23.
Campaign ActionIt's certainly rare for an incumbent to release a poll showing them down 8 points, but Walker is trying to argue that he, and not Begich, is the candidate that has the best chance to beat the GOP in this three-way race. However, while his poll's memo argues that Walker is "popular across the political spectrum" while both his opponents "garner favorable reviews mainly from their own partisan base," it doesn't actually provide the favorable or unfavorable numbers for any of the candidates.
By contrast, the Alaska Survey Research poll found that voters gave Walker just a 42-39 positive rating while Begich and Dunleavy posted much stronger 49-35 and 34-22 scores, respectively. Begich is likely hoping that Walker will eventually decide the race is unwinnable and drop out, but that could be a difficult argument to make if Walker believes he has a path to victory and that Begich is the one who should leave the contest.
Race Ratings Changes
We’re making the following changes to our race ratings. A summary is below, and explanations for these changes can be found in the body of the Digest. For all of our ratings, click here.
●OH-Gov: Lean Republican → Tossup
●VA-10: Tossup → Lean Democratic