The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●TN-Sen: When former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen decided to make this race for Tennessee’s open Senate seat his first campaign for office in more than a decade, we were initially skeptical of his chances in a state that backed Donald Trump by a giant 61-35 margin, particularly given the recent failures of other similar comeback bids in red states (Evan Bayh’s attempt to reclaim his Senate seat in Indiana was top-of-mind). However, a Bredesen upset doesn't look like the remote possibility it once did.
Campaign ActionUnlike unsuccessful comeback candidates such as Bayh, who became a D.C. lobbyist before trying to reclaim his Senate seat, Bredesen doesn't appear to have any easily exploitable vulnerabilities from his time as governor or his activities since he left office, a position he departed from with strong approval ratings. What’s more, polling has consistently found Bredesen competitive. Notably, a survey earlier this month from a PAC supporting GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn, the likely Republican nominee, could only muster a 38-35 lead for her in the face of a series of polls showing Bredesen ahead.
However, Bredesen has yet to face the inevitable onslaught of Republican attacks that will try to tie him to unpopular national Democrats, so we think Blackburn is still favored thanks to Tennessee's deep-red lean. But both national parties are behaving like they expect this race to be competitive; indeed, national Republicans have already reserved more than $4 million here for future ads. For these reasons, we're changing our rating on this race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.