The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●TX-Sen: Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, the longest such streak of any state, but there are signs 2018 could bring that streak to an end. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz initially looked like a daunting target, particularly given how expensive Texas is to campaign in. But the biggest factor that's put this race in play has also gone a long way toward mitigating that problem: the dynamic campaign of Rep. Beto O'Rourke, whose compelling candidacy has driven a massive influx of grassroots support, allowing him to outraise Cruz by a considerable margin.
Campaign ActionStunningly, that unexpected financial disparity has forced outside groups to devote precious resources to defend Cruz, who shouldn't have needed any help in the first place. National Republicans, including Cruz's home-state Senate colleague John Cornyn, have also fretted about this race. Adding to Cruz's difficulties, Trump's 52-43 victory in Texas was the weakest for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, thanks in part to changing voter demographics and an ongoing revolt against Republicans by college-educated suburban white voters.
Nevertheless, Cruz has led almost every poll by modest margins, and he's still favored, given Texas' strong Republican lean and the fact that turnout among Hispanic voters still tends to lag those of other, more conservative-leaning groups. However, Cruz's potential defeat no longer appears as shocking as it once had, and Daily Kos Elections is changing our race rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.