By now, the narrative for the 2018 midterms is clear—Trump is an anchor around the GOP in well-educated, suburban districts. It’s a major reason why, less than a month out from Election Day, the Democrats are favored to retake the House barring an October surprise.
But if there was any doubt that the GOP is in big, big trouble, it was erased last night, when David Wasserman of Cook Political Report announced that a very high-profile House Republican is in real danger. Namely, Peter Roskam of IL-06.
For those who don’t know, Roskam represents a swath of inner-ring western suburbs of Chicago—Wheaton, Barrington, Palatine, among others. That district was once represented by Henry Hyde, best known as the author of the anti-abortion Hyde Amendment and as the lead House manager in the Clinton impeachment. It was historically a classic collar county Republican district.
DK Elections noted yesterday that Roskam, the former Chief Deputy Whip, is one of several incumbents who need to up their game or risk being triaged. But Wasserman learned that Roskam’s Democrtic challenger, Sean Casten, leads in both Democratic and Republican internal polling.
This is all the more remarkable since IL-06 was, on paper, drawn to protect Roskam. When the Democrats in the Illinois state legislature reconfigured the congressional map to make the Chicago burbs bluer, they packed IL-06 with as many Republicans as possible. And yet, even with that packing, the district swung from a 53-45 win for Mitt Romney to a 50-43 win for Hillary Clinton. That’s pretty telling since, as near as I can determine, IL-06 has existed in more or less its present configuration since 1949—and has NEVER elected a Democrat. That means a lot of people who voted Republican all their lives are crossing over.
There’s at least one anecdote to back this up. Casten has picked up a key endorsement from former Republican congressman Harris Fawell. He represented what is now IL-11, bill Foster’s district. However, Fawell represented a good chunk of what is now IL-06’s western portion for most of his tenure. Casten even personally delivered a yard sign to Fawell.
Wasserman suspects one big reason Roskam is in trouble is that Governor Bruce Rauner is absolutely tanking. Nearly every public poll of the governor’s race shows Rauner way behind Democrat J. B. Pritzker, and many Republicans fear that if Rauner goes down, he could take Roskam and other Republicans downballot with him.
But you have to consider that in the past, Roskam has held on even in years when the GOP was getting its teeth kicked in. He narrowly defeated Tammy Duckworth in 2006 even in the midst of that year’s massive Democratic tsunami, and skated to reelection in 2008 even when Obama topped the ticket and became the first Democrat in decades to carry this district. And this year is already being forecast as a Democratic wave. If Roskam is in danger of being capsized by this wave, Katy bar the door—a lot of other suburban Republicans could be in trouble. Including Randy Hultgren in IL-14, the other collar county district that was packed with Republicans in 2010. Wasserman moved that race to a pure toss-up. Simply put, if Roskam goes down, in all likelihood the House has gone Democratic.
It would be poetic justice if Casten were to pull this off. Remember, this is the seat of the guy who led the Clinton impeachment. And in a year where we have a president who is probably in greater danger of being impeached than any president since then, that seat could be about to flip.
Casten is going to need some help to finish this off. Send him some love here.