Leading Off
●AZ-02: Another PPP poll pitting a generic Democratic challenger against a Republican House incumbent from the new progressive group Save My Care once again—as you'd expect—finds dismal news for Republicans. This time, the target Save My Care has in its sights is Rep. Martha McSally, who became the poster child for the GOP's reckless charge to repeal Obamacare when she reportedly exhorted her colleagues just before the vote with the Leeroy Jenkins-style battle cry, "Let's get this fucking thing done!"
Campaign ActionMcSally could wind up done next year, too, since she currently trails an unnamed "Democratic opponent" 50-43. Now, don't get too excited: The other day, after Save My Care released a similar poll in Nevada, we explained why generic tests like these must be viewed with great caution. However, there's another result from this survey that should actually worry McSally even more: her job approval rating, which stands at an awful 35-56.
Now, it's still extremely early, and plenty of politicians have turned around terrible numbers by Election Day before. But data like these could still be meaningful, because they might inspire strong challengers to run against McSally. Indeed, we've seen a huge upsurge in interest among Democrats compared to last year, when the party struggled to land worthy recruits.
And now we have word that one of those potential challengers—perhaps the biggest name of all—is indeed considering: Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who represented the neighboring 1st District until this year, and had reportedly been considering a comeback bid in the 2nd, just confirmed that she has indeed moved to Tucson and is thinking about the race.
Would Kirkpatrick make a good candidate, though? It's hard to say. On the one hand, she won difficult races in the 1st, a seat that had gone for Mitt Romney, even managing to hang on in the 2014 GOP wave. On the other, she badly lost her challenge to Sen. John McCain last year by a 54-41 margin, and the carpetbagger charges would be obvious. However, it very much looks like we're headed toward a contested primary, so local Democratic voters will have the chance to hash these issues out ahead of the general election.