Morning Digest: As two polls show a close race in Virginia, another has Democrat Ralph Northam up 10

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.

Leading Off

●VA-Gov: Three groups released polls of November's race for governor in Virginia on Tuesday, and … well, it feels like it's Choose Your Own Adventure Week in the Old Dominion (again).

If you think the race is a tossup, turn to page 1. Mason-Dixon gives Democrat Ralph Northam a 44-43 lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in their first poll since January. If you think it’s even closer than that, stay on page 1. Fox, which as usual employs the Democratic firm Anderson Robbins Research and the GOP group Shaw & Company Research, has a 42-41 lead for Northam with likely voters. Among registered voters, it’s 42-38 Northam; when a pollster offers both options, Daily Kos Elections always goes with likely voters. On Monday, Suffolk University also had the two tied 42-42, so this pair of polls seem to back that reading up.

But if you think Northam is blowing Gillespie out of the water, turn to page 10. Quinnipiac gives the Democrat a huge 51-41 lead, even better than the 44-38 edge they found a month ago. According to Larry Sabato, unreleased private polls also have Northam up, but "more modestly" than what Quinnipiac found.

If you think Northam's leading, but not by nearly 10 points, turn to page 5. On Monday, the University of Mary Washington published a poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International that had Northam leading 44-39.

If you think Gillespie is ahead, there's a blank page at the end where you can write whatever you want. But while no released survey has shown Gillespie with any lead in months, wary Democrats and optimistic Republicans will remember that polls gave Team Blue clear leads in the 2013 gubernatorial race and the 2014 Senate race, but the Democrats only narrowly won each race. However, the polls were much better during last year's presidential contest.