GA-06: Rep. Karen Handel (R) — Northern Atlanta Suburbs: Alpharetta, Marietta — R+8
Lean Republican. While the poor residents of this suburban district might have seen a lethal dose of campaigning in this June’s heavily contested special election, they look to be in for another close campaign. This ancestrally Republican district went to Trump by a narrow 48-47 margin, and now-Rep. Karen Handel edged out Democrat Jon Ossoff 52-48 in the aforementioned special election. Handel won’t get an easy ride to the November election, however, as national and state Democrats are targeting her. There are three Democrats running, businessman Kevin Abel, ex-TV news anchor Bobby Kaple, and gun control activist Lucy McBath. Each candidate has their own virtues: Abel has the potential to self-fund, Kaple has the support of many local Democratic leaders, including former Atlanta Mayor and UN Ambassador Andrew Young, and McBath’s time as an activist could have won her national allies. Kapple may be the slightest frontrunner, outraising Abel $255,000-$205,000 and ending with a $230,000-$140,000 cash on hand advantage. However, Kapple also self-funded $88,000 dollars so the fundraising enthusiasm around his campaign may be inflated. Handel raised a weak $260,000 in the 4th quarter but has a large $575,000 in the bank, giving her a built-in advantage in the general. Ossoff raised a record $30,000,0000 in his 2017 race, but Republicans hammered him on not living in the district. A Democrat with stronger ties to that can escape the carpetbagger label but would also lack Ossoff’s resources. Given the national environment and Trump’s weak performance in the district, Democrats should be able to compete in the district, but so far Handel has been an inoffensive incumbent and national groups may decide to invest in better pick-up opportunities. For now, it sits clearly on the playing field at Lean Republican.
GA-07: Rep. Rob Woodall (R) — Northeast Atlanta Suburbs: Gwinnett County — R+9
Likely Republican. This district, located in the fastly growing, well-educated Atlanta suburbs, is myriad ways similar to its sister to the west, and Trump’s weak 51-45 victory here shows that it will likely feature a competitive race too. Rep. Rob Woodall, who hasn’t faced a competitive race since he was elected in 2010, could be caught off-guard by the wave of Democratic enthusiasm and the mass exodus of well-educated, rich suburbanites from the Republican Party. Woodall’s fundraising has been laughably bad, with only $151,000 raised last quarter, putting him with $405,000 saved. A clown car of Democrats has declared to run, with the leading contenders being attorney Ethan Pham ($75,000 raised, $165,000 COH), ex-State Senate Budget Director Carolyn Bourdeaux ($130,000 raised, $140,000 COH), and C2 Education CEO David Kim ($110,000 raised, $220,000 COH). Pham has the support of many leaders of the Asian community, which makes up 14% of the district, while Bourdeaux has the support of ex-Governor Roy Barnes, and either stands a good chance of winning the primary, while Kim has been self-funding and could continue to do so to provide an equal playing field. Whoever makes it to the general should have a shot at unseating Woodall, but only in a wave. It’s a race to watch.
IL-06: Rep. Peter Roskam (R) — West Chicago Suburbs: Barrington, Westmont — R+2
Lean Republican. A member of the Clinton-Republican club, Rep. Peter Roskam has found his suburban Chicagoland district intended to be a GOP vote sink turn into a battleground, with Clinton winning a clear 50-43 victory. Roskam won’t be easy to unseat, however, as he’s somewhat of a top dog in the GOP House Caucus, giving him invaluable campaign resources, as shown by his massive $880,000 Q4 and pre-primary fundraising haul and towering $1.8 million in the bank. Like in many districts, a clown car of Democrats formed to take on Roskam, from which clean power executive Sean Casten emerged. He will have a tough race against Roskam, who has the connections to not go down easy like some of his Republican colleagues. Casten has raised $900,000 so far, but $630,000 of that was self-funded, and it’s likely his coffers have been raided for the primary, so he starts at a distinct fundraising disadvantage. It may be impossible for him to catch up to Roskam without significant self-funding and national help. House Majority PAC, Team Blue’s independent PAC, has already reserved $1 million in airtime for the fall and will likely follow up with more, certainly being joined by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. This looks to be one of the most competitive races in the country, but Democrats will have to work hard to beat the well-tempered Roskam and will likely need national Democrats’ help to win. If Bruce Rauner collapses at the top of the ticket, Republicans could have less of a reason to turn out in November, further endangering Roskam. Right now, Roskam maintains an advantage, but Casten has a real shot of flipping the seat.
IL-12: Rep. Mike Bost (R) — Little Egypt: E. Saint Louis, Carbondale — R+5
Tossup. Drawn to be a safe Democratic district by Democratic redistricters in 2012, but Obama’s 2012 50-48 swung all the way to a 55-40 Trump victory. Second-term GOP Representative Mike Bost has won two easy victories, but this time should be different. St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly, who national Democrats have been attempting to recruit for years, has decided to jump in this year. He easily won his primary, and his reputation in the district’s largest county as a tough prosecutor and fundraising chops make him one of Team Blue’s top recruits this year. Kelly has outraised Bost in the last three filing periods, and Bost holds a very narrow $680,000-$660,000 cash on hand advantage that may soon disappear. Kelly’s moderate, law and order reputation are a good fit for the district, and he clearly has the campaign skills to run a good campaign. Kelly has been added to DCCC’s Red to Blue list, a collection of their top candidates, a signal of their willingness to invest in him. Conor Lamb in PA-18 proved that Democrats can regain ancestral support, and Kelly has a similar profile that can win Trump crossover votes in this historically Blue district. This race will be one of the most competitive in the nation, with no advantage for either candidate being clear.
IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis: Central IL: Springfield, Bloomington, Champaign — R+3
Likely Republican. Rep. Rodney Davis won his initial 2012 election by the narrowest of narrow margins, just 1,002 votes, while Mitt Romney similarily eeked out a 48.9-48.6 victory at the top of the ticket. In 2016, Davis won an easy victory as Donald Trump won a moderate 50-44 win. In 2018, Team Blue is targeting Davis heavily, and the nominee will be businesswoman and former fundraiser for Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan. She’s on DCCC’s Red to Blue list, and it is likely she will need much of their help considering her huge $100,000 to $1,000,000 cash on hand deficit with Davis. However, she outraised him $210,000-$120,000 in the pre-primary period, and a united Democratic base will give her a further boost in fundraising. Furthermore, the district contains many middle-sized, well-educated cities like Springfield and Bloomington where Democratic enthusiasm will be sky-high, giving Londrigan another boost. David, however, will not go down without a fight, and he outran Romney and Trump in his 2014 and 2016 re-elections. He’s in better shape than many incumbents that have faced few competitive races, but he still will face a very competitive challenge. Londrigan has been running her campaign in opposition to the Republican attempt to repeal and replace Obamacare, whose effort remains unpopular and could strike a chord in the district. A small amount of money can go a long way in the district, as 60% is in the cheap Champaign media market and the rest is in the moderately expensive Saint Louis Market. Right now, Davis has the advantage, but Londrigan will likely be the toughest opponent he has ever faced and has been a solid recruit. This district isn’t on the top of Team Blue’s target list, but it could become much more competitive as the two nominees spar. Davis remains the favorite, but this remains a race to watch.
IL-14: Rep. Randy Hultgren: Western Chicago Exurbs: Batavia, McHenry — R+5
Likely Republican. The results of Illinois’s congressional map has deviated wildly, and one of those places is Illinois’s 14th Congressional District, which was drawn as a Republican vote sink but is now a swing district. Mitt Romney won a solid 54-44 victory in 2012, but Trump’s 2016 margin shrunk to 49-45. Ex-HHS official and nurse Lauren Underwood easily won the Democratic nod, and she was quickly added to the Red to Blue list, a sign she will receive national support come November. Underwood has a pre-existing heart condition and has run hard against the Republican Health Care Plan. Her fundraising was weak for the past few quarters, but she picked it up in the pre-primary period and outraised Hultgren $200,000-$50,000 but has a $165,000-$485,0000 cash on hand deficit. Exurban/suburban districts like these have shown good potential for Democrats to win in, but Underwood needs to show that she can keep up a fundraising advantage to take advantage of the national pro-Democratic enthusiasm. Her landslide victory in the primary, which was expected to be very competitive, proves she can run a good campaign, and it is unclear if Hultgren is gearing up to run a hard campaign. Though now this district does not look competitive, it seems likely that Hultrgren becomes more vulnerable throughout the cycle. Underwood will be the first tough opponent he’s faced in a while, and it’s possible that he gets caught asleep at the wheel. For now, Hultgren remains the clear favorite, but that could change quickly.