The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●NY-27: Indicted Republican Rep. Chris Collins is going to stay on the ballot after all. On Monday, an attorney for the congressman, who was charged with insider trading in August, confirmed that he'd appear on the November ballot because of the difficulty GOP officials were having in mapping an exit strategy for him—which would have been challenged in court by Democrats no matter what route they chose.
Campaign ActionThat means Collins, who announced shortly after his indictment that he wouldn't seek re-election, will indeed go before voters in November. But so many questions remain. Will he actively campaign—and thus call unwanted attention to his scandal? Or will he just hope to glide to a fourth term thanks to his district's steep Republican lean, trade his resignation as part of a plea-deal with prosecutors, and then trigger a special election?
Collins of course would not be the first sitting member of Congress to win an election while under indictment—former GOP Rep. Mike Grimm did so in New York’s 11th District as recently as 2014—but as you can see, there's quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this bizarre situation. Combined with the favorable environment, that gives Democrat Nate McMurray an opening to pull off an upset, so we're moving our rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.