• OR-01: Republican Rob Cornilles, who doesn't really have much of a primary to worry about, is out with an ad (his first) that seems clearly aimed toward January's general election. It's about as anodyne as possible, with Cornilles jogging down streets and over bridges, saying he'll "grow jobs, reduce the debt, protect Social Security and Medicare." See for yourself:
But what I absolutely love is this brilliant catch from DKos Electioneer James Allen, who points out that at about 20 seconds into the spot, Cornilles is shown running through Oregon's Third Congressional District. Downtown Portland, which features in the ad's background just across the Willamette River, is in the 1st CD—but that same river divides the 1st from the 3rd, so to capture a picturesque view of that part of the city, you have to situate yourself in OR-03. It's a bit like running for office in Manhattan while setting yourself against the New York skyline from the vantage point of Brooklyn Heights… in other words, kind of tool-ish.Senate:
• MA-Sen: Dayumn! The League of Conservation Voters just went up with a $1.8 million ad buy, hammering Scott Brown for siding with "Big Oil." You can watch the spot below, but also check out the link for the Brown campaign's ultra-feeble response. Note that they call Elizabeth Warren "Professor" twice—is that really how they plan to try to win this thing?
• NE-Sen: State Sen. Deb Fischer is the latest in a long string of Republicans who have demanded cuts to government spending while accepting welfare in the form of federal agricultural subsidies—in this case, ridiculously cheap grazing lands. Explains the Omaha World-Herald: "The Fischers lease 11,724 acres of federal land in north-central Nebraska for about $4,700 for seven months [a year] — paying about $110,000 less than the market rate for private land in Cherry County." Interestingly, while Fischer's opponents in the GOP primary have held their fire so far, Politico says the DSCC is making an issue of it. Just a press release so far, but it suggests that perhaps the DS is concerned that nominal frontrunner Jon Bruning is already so damaged that he might not wind up with his party's nomination.• WI-Sen: Public Policy Polling is out with the first independent survey of the GOP primary and the numbers are both interesting and almost exactly what you'd expect:
[Tommy] Thompson's at 35% to 29% for Mark Neumann, 21% for Jeff Fitzgerald, and 4% for Frank Lasee. That's not a particularly impressive lead given that Thompson's name recognition is 86% compared to 61% for Neumann, 50% for Fitzgerald, and 24% for Lasee. Dig deeper and you see just how risky Thompson's position is—with voters that aren't familiar with either Neumann or Fitzgerald, Thompson leads with 50% to 19% for Neumann and 9% for Fitzgerald. But with voters who do know even just one out of Thompson's primary rivals Neumann leads with 33% to 29% for Thompson and 27% for Fitzgerald. […]What's causing Thompson's trouble? It's doubts about him from the right. 51% of primary voters would prefer someone "more conservative" to only 35% who are committed to Thompson. Those numbers are particularly bad for him with Tea Party voters—only 29% of them are committed to him compared to 63% who would prefer someone further to the right. Among voters describing themselves as "very conservative" Thompson already finds himself in third place at 26% behind Neumann's 33% and Fitzgerald's 27%.
• WV-Sen, WV-Gov: Mike Stuart, chair of the West Virginia GOP, says he won't run for office of any kind in 2012. This leaves Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Sen. Joe Manchin, both Democrats, with no declared opponents so far.
Gubernatorial:
• NH-Gov: As expected, former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan officially launched her campaign for New Hampshire's open gubernatorial seat on Tuesday morning, making her the first Democrat to do so, though other entrants are likely. (Incidentally, her last name is pronounced with the accent on the first syllable.)
• MO-Gov (PDF): I have it on good authority that this is the home of Alpha Packaging CEO Dave Spence, the would-be GOP gubernatorial replacement candidate for Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder. It recently sold for $8.95 million:
• CA-24: EMILY's List endorses a lot of incumbents, and it's often not especially newsy. This one stands out, though, since they just announced their backing of Dem Rep. Lois Capps, who was drawn into what is generally considered to be a tougher district for re-election, so this ought to help.
• CA-44: According to Politico, the House Ethics Committee is about to upgrade its months-long "preliminary inquiry" into Dem Rep. Laura Richardson to a "full-scale investigation." Richardson has allegedly used government staff to engage in political activities, and earlier this year, an aide's letter of resignation, replete with accusations of improprieties and abusive behavior, became public. Richardson is facing off against two other Democrats in the redrawn 44th CD: Rep. Janice Hahn and Assemblyman Isadore Hall. Hall actually outraised both incumbents in the last quarter.
• CT-05: Yet another union endorsement for State House Speaker Chris Donovan, this time from the Connecticut Education Association, which represents over 40,000 teachers in the state. Donovan has long been known as a good friend of labor, and it's shown, as he's been completely cleaning up with unions. He also led the Democratic field in third-quarter fundraising with $261K raised. Dan Roberti had $210K, Elizabeth Esty had $200K, and Michael Williams trailed with just $31K.
• FL-11: Do Republicans in Tampa not understand the concept of vote sinks? Simply put, the Democratic voters of that city have to go somewhere when the maps are drawn, and given the Republicans hold all the seats surrounding the current 11th, I don't think they're going to want to try to crack the district. That's all the more true given that once Bill Young retires, their hold on the adjacent 10th CD will be quite tenuous. So I'm baffled that yet another GOPer has entered the race here, because this is a safe blue seat that is only likely to get bluer. But so it goes: Retired Air Force Col. Evelio Otero is joining Hillsborough County Commissioner Mark Sharpe and teabagger Josh Kiernan in a contest for the privilege of losing to Dem Rep. Kathy Castor.
• IA-01: Businessman Rod Blum, a former chair of the Dubuque County Republican Party, officially announced he would challenge Dem Rep. Bruce Braley on Monday. He joins another businessman, Steve Rathje, in the GOP field, and 2010 candidate Ben Lange is also reportedly considering a rematch. Lange came within just two points of beating Braley last year, a much tighter result than most observers expected.
• IA-03: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS is hitting Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell with an ad that tries to link President Obama's new jobs bill to his 2009 stimulus plan—the former generally polls well, but the latter (which is often wrongly lumped with the 2008 bank bailout in many voters' minds) does not, so this line of attack makes sense. The question, of course, is whether it will work. On that score, Crossroads is betting $160K that it will.
• IL-06: Non-profit director Geoffrey Petzel says he'll challenge GOP Rep. Peter Roskam next year. Petzel is 28 years old and is described as a "political newcomer."
• IL-12: This sounds like good news: Madison County Chief Judge Ann Callis will reportedly enter the open-seat race for Democrats, who had seen a number of high-profile names quickly decline after Rep. Jerry Costello announced his retirement. I'm also hopeful that maybe this means ex-state Rep. Jay Hoffman will not switch over from the 13th CD (as he'd been contemplating), since we need him to take on GOP Rep. Tim Johnson in that seat.
On a related note, check out this amazing video of Republican Jason Plummer absolutely blanking in a television interview last year. Plummer announced his campaign for this seat over the weekend and is probably the GOP frontrunner… but if stumbles like these are his stock-in-trade, then maybe not for long.
• IN-09: Robert Winningham, a former aide to ex-Rep. Lee Hamilton, became the second Democrat to announce his candidacy for the right to take on GOP freshman Todd Young. He joins Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jonathan George in the race. Hamilton, by the way, represented the 9th CD for over thirty years, from 1965 to 1999, and also served as vice-chair on the 9/11 Commission. Winningham moved to Texas after Hamilton's retirement (to care for his parents, who have since passed away), and only recently moved back into the district.
• MA-01: Andrea Nuciforo, the Register of Deeds in Pittsfield and also a former state senator (and a dude, btw), says he plans to run for Congress next year, presumably against Rep. John Olver in the Democratic primary. It's sort of an odd move, since many rumors have suggested that Olver's seat will be targeted for demolition. (The latest is that it will be combined with Jim McGovern's Worcester-based 3rd CD.) If Olver does run for re-election (something he says he'll do, despite his age and his wife's poor health), that would leave Nuciforo sandwiched between two incumbents—not usually a comfortable place to be.
• MD-04: Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit, whom we first mentioned just a day ago as interested in primary challenge to Dem Rep. Donna Edwards, has gone ahead and formed an exploratory committee.
• MO-02, MO-Sen: Whoa. I'd been wondering about Ann Wagner's eye-popping third quarter haul of $532K, the largest take of any non-incumbent House candidate in the nation. According to a Politico analysis, it turns out that over a fifth of her money came from employees of Enterprise, the car-rental company—where her husband just happens to be a vice president. No way all those people received any pressure whatsoever, right?
On a related note, Wagner rather definitively insists that she won't switch back over to the GOP Senate primary and will stick with the open-seat House race.
• PA-08: Roll Call's Jason Dick discusses a couple of potential Democratic challengers to red-shirt GOP freshman Mike Fitzpatrick. Doylestown Township Supervisor Cynthia Philo says she is "considering" the race, though first she has to deal with re-election to her current job next month. Philo got thumped in a state Senate race last year, but she's also a former director of a neighborhood economic development organization, so that suggests helpful connections. The piece also mentions Bucks County Commissioner Diane Marseglia as a possible name.
Other Races:
• Maine Question 1: The group Protect Maine Votes is going up with a new TV ad in support of Question 1, a ballot measure that would veto the GOP's attempt to repeal the states's same-day voter registration law. (Republicans hate anything that makes registering to vote easier.) Along with Ohio's Issue 2, this is one of the most important initiatives on the ballot in the entire nation this November. Unlike in Ohio, where a "no" vote is a vote for the good guys, in Maine, a "yes" vote is a vote for the side of justice. Anyhow, you can watch the ad (which I think is pretty good) below:
• NC-SoS: Elaine Marshall, who lost last year's Senate race to GOP Sen. Richard Burr, will run for re-election as Secretary of State next year.• OH SB5: More good news on the SB5/Issue 2 front. Quinnipiac, like PPP, saw support for the repeal drop over the summer, from 56-32 in July to 51-38 at the end of September. But, also like PPP, they now show opposition firming up once again, back out to 57-32. It's always tricky to poll ballot measures, so I wouldn't grow too comfortable just yet, especially since anti-union forces have been spending heavily in favor of Issue 2. But the numbers have moved in the right direction.
Grab Bag:
• Voter Suppression: Oh man. Artur Davis can seriously get f*cked. You'll recall that last week, the former Democratic congressman wrote a turd of an op-edin which he came out favor of voter ID legislation and claimed—with zero evidence—that voter "fraud" was rampant in his home state of Alabama. Now, asked to provide such evidence, this is how he dodges:
“I know that those are the talking points that some groups opposed to my article have disseminated and I choose not to play that game with you or them,” Davis told TPM in an email. “It strikes me as the ‘shoot the messenger’ politics both the left and the right deploy and I hope you will do me the courtesy of printing my reply.”
Redistricting Roundup:
• NV Redistricting: Trust me, when you're in court, this is always the position you want to find yourself in—if, in these circumstances, you're Team Blue. Democrats told the judge hearing Nevada's main redistricting litigation that they are content with the maps drafted by the three special masters, while Republicans filed objections and have essentially asked the judge to adopt the map that they proposed. Convincing a judge to alter or drop a special masters' report is a tough row to hoe, especially when the chief grounds for your opposition have already been largely dismissed by that same report. (The GOP is just re-hashing its self-serving claims that Hispanic voters need to be packed into fewer districts so that they can elect candidates of their choice—something the special masters specifically said wasn't necessary.) The judge will hold a hearing on Thursday and has previously said he hopes to issue a final ruling by Nov. 15.