• IL-06, 08, 10, 14: That ridiculous string of district numbers is no accident. Tom Hobbs of the Journal & Topics Newspapers files a report filled with all manner of juicy details about GOP freshman Joe Walsh's new attempts at district-shopping. Some great tidbits:
Republican insiders told the Journal & Topics Newspapers this week that Walsh recently met with 8th Dist. Republican candidate Darlene Ruscitti in an attempt to "intimidate her" into dropping out so Walsh could run in the 8th rather than face a potentially difficult primary in the 14th against U.S. Rep. Randy Hultgren.Ruscitti was having none of it and told Walsh she was staying in the race, Republican sources said. […]
Insiders also said that Walsh conducted telephone polling in the 6th, 8th, 10th and 14th congressional districts to see where he might have the easiest race. (Emphasis added.)
Craziness! Note that outside of the 8th, Republican incumbents sit in all of those districts, so I guess Walsh figured Ruscitti would be an easier target than Peter Roskam, Bob Dold, or Randy Hultgren. Anyhow, Hobbs also has some on-the-record quotes from 8th District Republicans who are cheesed off at Walsh. Click the link for the full story—this is politics at its most entertaining.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: PPP has its first GOP primary poll since Rep. Connie Mack's haphazard entry into the race; despite his flailing goofiness, Mack leads the field with 40 percent of the vote, versus 12 for George LeMieux, 4 for Mike McCalister and 3 apiece for Adam Hasner and Craig Miller. The only other time PPP tested Mack was back in March, when he was widely expected to enter the race. Back then, he scored just 28%, so this is an improvement. Tom Jensen also notes that it isn't just name recognition which is hold back Mack's opponents: In direct head-to-heads among voters who have heard of each of the other candidates, Mack still leads every single time. The primary is still quite a ways off (Aug. 14), so there's some time for someone else to make a move, but I think it will be difficult.
• MA-Sen: A new poll from UMass Amherst shows Democrat Elizabeth Warren leading Republican Sen. Scott Brown by a 43-39 margin. The poll was conducted by Internet-based pollster YouGov, so exercise the appropriate level of skepticism—though it's worth noting that YouGov did pretty well in 2010, according to analyst Nate Silver's ratings. One other cool thing about this poll is that it included an open-ended question asking respondents to pick one word that best described each candidate. You can see the resulting word clouds here.
• MT-Sen: Ordinarily, a new PPP Senate poll is cause for a new DKos Election front-page post. But, well, this time, I'm gonna beg off. Why? See below:
When PPP first tested the Montana Senate race last November, Denny Rehberg led Jon Tester by 2 points, 48-46. When PPP tested it in June, Rehberg again led Tester by 2 points, 47-45. And when PPP looked at the contest this week, Rehberg led Tester by... you guessed it... 2 points, 47-45. This is the most stable race PPP has ever polled and quite a marked contrast to the wild Republican Presidential contest.
• NE-Sen: Shira Toeplitz reports that Majority PAC (a Dem outfit) is spending $72K on this pro-Ben Nelson ad this week, which touts his relationship with veterans:
• OH-Sen: What scuzzballs. The US Chamber of Commerce outright doctored a photo of Sherrod Brown used in this new ad—and they aren't denying it, either. As The Hill's Josh Lederman puts it, the manipulated pic "looks like surveillance-camera footage of a disheveled Brown." See for yourself:
Gubernatorial:
• MO-Gov: Super-wealthy plastics magnate Dave Spence just donated $2 million out of his own pocket to his campaign, some pretty serious seed money as he seeks the GOP gubernatorial nomination. It's also probably meant as a message to Auditor Tom Schweich and attorney/Tea Partier Ed Martin, both of whom are considering entering the primary.
• MT-Gov: PPP also has some numbers for the GOP gubernatorial primary in Montana:
In the Montana Gubernatorial primary Rick Hill continues to be the early front runner with 37% to 10% for Ken Miller, 5% for Jeff Essmann, 4% for Jim Lynch, 3% for Neil Livingstone and Jim O'Hara, 2% for Corey Stapleton, and 1% for Bob Fanning.Compared to the last time we polled this contest in June Miller's up 4 points and Hill's up 2 points, while Livingstone is down 12 points and Essmann is down 6 points.
I'm guessing this had something to do with Livingstone cratering.
• VA-Gov: This should set off a massive battle within the Virginia Republican Party: Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, an ultra-conservative rising star, just announced plans to run for governor in 2013. Cuccinelli would be attempting to cut in line ahead of Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who declined to run for governor in 2009. That allowed eventual winner Bob McDonnell to avoid a primary, with the understanding, more or less, that Bolling would have the field to himself four years later.
But now, it seems, Bolling took one for the team only to risk getting upstaged by the insurgent Cuccinelli, who is striking while the iron is hot. (He's become a major Tea Party favorite for taking the lead on suing the federal government over healthcare reform.) Bolling would look like a sap if he waited yet again (governors are only allowed to serve a single four-year term in VA), so I have to imagine he'll take the gloves off once this race really gets underway. Should be fun!
• UT-Gov, UT-02: This is odd. Former state Rep. Morgan Philpot, who very nearly defeated Dem Rep. Jim Matheson last year and had long talked about a possible rematch, is changing gears entirely. He now says he plans to run against Gov. Gary Herbert, which actually sounds like some very good news for the incumbent, because Philpot would be the second challenger to enter the Republican contest, after state Rep. Ken Sumsion. This is what we call the "clown car effect," where having multiple upstarts split votes among discontented voters allows an officeholder to skate by with a plurality victory. Of course, last year, Sen. Bob Bennett went down at the GOP convention despite facing two opponents (Tim Bridgewater and eventual victor Mike Lee), but Hebert doesn't seem to be anywhere near as unpopular as Bennett was. (A recent poll mentioned in the article gave Herbert a 71% statewide approval rating.)
House:
• IL-10: This is sort of a crazy story. Military veteran John Tree, who recently joined the Democratic primary, reportedly helped subdue a drunken passenger on an airplane in mid-flight, at the request of flight attendants. The story happened to be corroborated by none other than talking head Chris Matthews, who by chance was on the same plane—but the GOP immediately went into attack mode, sending out a press release titled "Superhero or Super Embellisher?" Click the link for the full details into this bizarre fracas.
• FL-22, FL-16: In Dave Catanese's brief new interview with Allen West, the freshman Republican dismissed but did not outright deny the Miami Herald's report that he's looking to run again fellow GOP Rep. Tom Rooney in the 16th rather than try his hand at what could wind up being a much bluer 22nd. In fact, all he said was: "I don’t know where it came from." To me, that says such a switch is still a possibility.
What's going to get a lot more attention, though, is this remark about Democrat Lois Frankel:
"She’s a career politician looking for her next gig,” West said of Frankel, adding that the mayor herself ran in another district against Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.). “Maybe she likes running against black guys,” he continued, referring to a prior race with Hastings, who is also black.
MD-06: So I guess that whole office holiday party problem just got resolved: Bud Otis, chief of staff to GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, just resigned his post, a day after a Roll Call article said he was looking at running in the Republican primary against… Roscoe Bartlett. Awkward! What I really want to know, though, is this: What the hell was Otis thinking? I mean, aside from stabbing his longtime boss in the back, how long did he think he could get away with this for? He'd reportedly been soliciting support from a run from Maryland legislators, one of whom (rather predictably) decided to dime him out. So what was the endgame supposed to look like? Because this is just embarrassing, and considering he's been friends with Bartlett for thirty years, it makes Otis look like an utter scuzz.
But wait! There's yet another knife in the back for Bartlett! Maryland GOP chair Alex Mooney now says that he, too, plans to seek the Republican nomination. Mooney served three terms in the state Senate but last year achieved that most unusual of distinctions: He was a Republican incumbent who managed to lose in 2010. In any event, this race could get even more crowded still, since the Washington Post's Ben Pershing mentions that yet another legislator, state Sen. Christopher Shank, is also considering the race. (That's on top of state Sen. David Brinkley, whose name first surfaced a day earlier.)
• MO-01: Not sure how much of a tea leaf this is, but the de-districted Russ Carnahan is holding a big holiday fundraiser on Dec. 11 at a St. Louis restaurant which just happens to be located inside the 1st Congressional District. That's the home of Rep. Lacy Clay, whom Carnahan could conceivably challenge in a Democratic primary.
• MT-AL: And wrapping up the Montana trio, PPP also has numbers for a generic matchup for the state's open House seat. They find that generic R leads generic D by a 46-41 spread. (They didn't bother testing actual candidates because last time they did, name rec was so low on all sides as to make the head-to-heads mostly meaningless.)
• PA-08: Two new Democratic names are in the mix as possible candidates against redshirt GOP freshman Mike Fitzpatrick: Kathy Boockvar, who lost a statewide race for Commonwealth Court last month, and Det Ansinn, who also just lost a race for Bucks County Commissioner. Ansinn confirms he's met with the DCCC, and while Boockvar hasn't commented, PoliticsPA's sources say she's also being recruited.
• UT-04: The Club for Growth has their man in Utah's new 4th CD: ultra-conservative state Rep. Carl Wimmer. While the Club is mostly interested in Galtian free market heroes, Wimmer has made a lot of headlines over the last year for a variety of social-con legislation he's sponsored, on abortion, Planned Parenthood, and creating criminal penalties for teachers who violate Utah's super-restrictive sex education laws. Anyhow, this move reminds me of the Club of old, which regularly made boring seats competitive and competitive seats even moreso by supporting unelectable dimwits. The 4th looks like Utah's least-red seat, and Dem Rep. Jim Matheson may seek re-election here, so perhaps the CfG will wind up giving us an assist.
Grab Bag:
• Crossroads: The FEC deadlocked on a request by Karl Rove's American Crossroads to allow the group to coordinate more closely with candidates on what are supposed to be "independent" expenditures. Rick Hasen further explains: "It means no guidance for Crossroads. They could take their chances in front of the FEC (and maybe courts) going forward."
• Polltopia: PPP is looking for questions to add to their new weekly Iowa tracking poll, which looks slated to go into the field this weekend.
Redistricting Roundup:
• CT Redistricting: Connecticut lawmakers just reached an agreement on new state House and Senate maps, but with no deal on a congressional plan in sight, they've asked the state Supreme Court for a thirty-day extension. (The deadline was Wednesday.) Meanwhile, Dem House Speaker (and CT-05 candidate) Chris Donovan resigned from the redistricting panel to head off charges that he was trying to redraw the 5th CD in a way that's beneficial to him. These accusations always struck me as bunk, particularly since legislative Republicans never complained and, in any event, Democrats are known to be pursuing a "least change" plan—and considering the 5th is a mere 523 people too small, that would involve making only the most minimal of changes. But now it's a non-issue altogether.
• OH Redistricting: Ugh, I don't like the sound of this one bit:
Ohio House Minority Leader Armond Budish, D-Beachwood, said Wednesday that he believes that he and Rep. Matt Huffman, R-Lima, have reached agreement on a compromise congressional redistricting plan that could avoid a referendum next year on the plan already enacted.However, Mike Dittoe, spokesman for House Speaker William Batchelder, R-Medina, said in an email that there was no deal, at least yet.
“Conversations are ongoing and we are hopeful that there will be some level of agreement in the near future,” said Dittoe.
I'd much rather take our chances with a court-drawn map in Ohio. The plan supposedly creates six safe Republican seats, four safe Dem seats, and "six that are competitive, but Republican leaning." I don't see how that's a good deal for Democrats at all, and I would be surprised if a judge drew a map that bad.
• PA Redistricting: The gang at Roll Call says that Pennsylvania Republicans' long-awaited congressional map will supposedly get released on Monday, but this process has gotten teased out forever, so I guess we'll just to wait and see. They also have some details about what the new plan allegedly looks like.
• RI Redistricting: Earlier this week, the commission responsible for redistricting in Rhode Island released not one, not two, but three separate proposals for dividing up the state's two congressional districts. Despite RI's small size, some of the plans manage to offer some pretty radical alterations to the existing district lines. You can check them all out at the link. Commenter sapelcovits also has some thoughts about each of these maps.
• Maps: Thanks to hard work by jeffmd, we are pleased to present Google Maps versions of new congressional redistricting plans in seven more states: Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Utah.